EURNZD Lower
Trying EURNZD lower.
Looks like we're forming a bearish wedge and i am expecting it to break to the downside.
overall the narrative is changing, the EUR is no longer benefitting from hawkish ECB speeches and could mean the upside in the EUR will be limited by hawkish ECB comments now. the NZD should benefit from a more hawkish RBNZ than expected last week and better future economic prospects.
Rate differentials are moving lower and the VIX is lower.
March 1st is typically a good day for stocks which helps and the day after corporate month end usually seems USD weakness which should mean higher stocks. We're entering less bearish US stock seasonality now, the VIX and US stocks both went down last week which is typically a bullish signal for stocks so i am expecting risk on moves this week.
sentiment and positioning are extremely high for the pair which should also limit upside movement.
Overall expecting a risk on move in stocks this week and EURNZD seems like a good pair to play this out on.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
Looks like we're forming a bearish wedge and i am expecting it to break to the downside.
overall the narrative is changing, the EUR is no longer benefitting from hawkish ECB speeches and could mean the upside in the EUR will be limited by hawkish ECB comments now. the NZD should benefit from a more hawkish RBNZ than expected last week and better future economic prospects.
Rate differentials are moving lower and the VIX is lower.
March 1st is typically a good day for stocks which helps and the day after corporate month end usually seems USD weakness which should mean higher stocks. We're entering less bearish US stock seasonality now, the VIX and US stocks both went down last week which is typically a bullish signal for stocks so i am expecting risk on moves this week.
sentiment and positioning are extremely high for the pair which should also limit upside movement.
Overall expecting a risk on move in stocks this week and EURNZD seems like a good pair to play this out on.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
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