ECB flows

Here we are quickly tracking the flows for the news:

We are tracking a few key things here today:

(1) Removal of summer 2019 from forward guidance -> replaced with end of year

(2) Growth and inflation forecasts revised lower

(3) Confirmation on TLTRO’s to be announced with full details coming in April

For those who are short EURUSD, there are no changes to the path towards 1.09. The risk is for a knee-jerk reaction to the upside on the headline of TLTRO’s not coming till April. For the news flow there is heavy resistance at 1.135/1.136 and provide selling opportunities.

Good luck guys

Kommentera:

TLTRO's here.. earlier than expected. Very dovish.

Kommentera:

The strategic hedge in EURUSD for the ECB news flow was based on out-guessing a hawkish knee jerk reaction to the upside on details not being released till April. In this case obviously not worth holding any longer once the details were confirmed early.

Nevertheless very bearish Euro and we are back to tracking the main flow towards 1.09.

Trade stängt: Stopp nått:

A failed attempt of outguessing a "hawkish" headline of TLTRO's details being delayed till April before NFP continued the flows towards 1.09 and beyond. Next.