FX:EURUSD   Euro / USA-dollar
• Second weekly close below the multi year trend line
• Bearish sign for the Euro
• FED-ECB policy divergence, geopolitics and rising demand for the USD are factors weighing on the pair
• Will potential Macron's success create a reversal gap up just like it happened in 2017?
Maybe yes. Despite its second weekly close below the trend line, traders should be aware that fake breakouts happen often in the markets and this might be the case.
• We are approaching a strong support zone
• With Lagarde's latest more hawkish comments, a lot of negative factors have already been priced in
• Bears should be cautious with their positions
• Risk reward favors long positions with stops at 1.06 or 1.03 depending on the risk aversion of each trader and take profit at around 1.17 (long term traders)

Good luck

Ramzi Abou Abdallah, CFTe, CMT

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