The dust has settled and we can now identify medium-term moves
Inputs:
- Rates revised upward for next year
- Inflation is a major problem
- The Fed doesn't control inflation and can't get it under control quickly
- Rates will remain high for some time
- 4.5 expected by year end then February 4.75 and will watch.
* No dollar reversal is essentially expected until February 2023 (current expected end of rates rise cycle).
* The theme is simple - risk off is a major theme in the markets
* The FED is willing to sacrifice both the labor market and development for now to fight inflation.
* Hint - until the inversion is overcome no risk inclusion is expected.
Comparing 1974 and 2022 are the two closest (expectations for exhausting sideways) in line with corrective structure imo
www.tradingview.com/...am-NQ1-upd-Sep-2022/
Shares
= Watch for real yields (when they start to fall is one of the signals)
= Watch the ratio of durable goods to daily commodities
= Watch the spread between junk bonds and core bonds.
Old proverb in action - "Do not fight FED" and rare fund will, N!B! this.
Trade safe and wise.
Not legal and financial advice;
Any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author.
Inputs:
- Rates revised upward for next year
- Inflation is a major problem
- The Fed doesn't control inflation and can't get it under control quickly
- Rates will remain high for some time
- 4.5 expected by year end then February 4.75 and will watch.
* No dollar reversal is essentially expected until February 2023 (current expected end of rates rise cycle).
* The theme is simple - risk off is a major theme in the markets
* The FED is willing to sacrifice both the labor market and development for now to fight inflation.
* Hint - until the inversion is overcome no risk inclusion is expected.
Comparing 1974 and 2022 are the two closest (expectations for exhausting sideways) in line with corrective structure imo
www.tradingview.com/...am-NQ1-upd-Sep-2022/
Shares
= Watch for real yields (when they start to fall is one of the signals)
= Watch the ratio of durable goods to daily commodities
= Watch the spread between junk bonds and core bonds.
Old proverb in action - "Do not fight FED" and rare fund will, N!B! this.
Trade safe and wise.
Not legal and financial advice;
Any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author.
Kommentera:
Kommentera:
IG prints retail are extremely short DXY again.
Imo it is wrong side.
Imo it is wrong side.
Kommentera:
