Impending Breakout on GBPAUD

GBPAUD has been stuck in a consolidation for most part of August. It should be noted that the ranging market came right after an initial bullish push. This price action tells me that accumulation of more bullish orders is taking place with the overall target being 1.86126. As with all range trades, positions should be taken at the extremes ie Highest Resistance/Lowest Support. In this case, buying opportunities line up at 1.81589 which coincides with the 38.2 Fib level previously tested and is holding as a Higher Low point.
WHAT WILL INVALIDATE THIS?
A close below 1.81589 will invalidate my bullish bias