goldenBear88

Engaging my Selling order / Gold looking rather weak

Kort
TVC:GOLD   CFDs på guld (US $ / OZ)
Gold's general commentary: The first Support of #1,815.80 has been hit and breached on the aftermath, following the Hourly 4 chart’s Rectangle breakout. The #1,845.90 extension remains valid only if #1,823.80 breaks once again, as the DX broke above it’s Channel Down as as pandemic cases and lockdowns rise globally, the DX will continue to gain (was on huge losses last week) against Gold as the safe-haven choice (which is not sole hedge asset anymore, as it was the case throughout the history), much like the situation in March. Even the Daily chart looks disappointing after Resistance rejected the Price-action #3 times this Month. Gold loosing while Bond Yields are on the rise along with the DX is the paradox nowadays (taking the debacle on most U.S. announcements in consideration). Sole reason is the Fundamental pressure yet again. Such news along with a rising / decent recovery on DX makes Investors park their capital on riskier assets than traditional safe-havens like Gold. But on the bright side / despite news anticipation ahead, Price-action didn't drop as much as before and Selling extension is altered near my expected #1,800.80 barrier. In my opinion this shows that the Weekly chart’s (#1W) Support zone of #1,805.80 - #1,800.80 will be defended, strongly limiting the downtrend, but nothing guarantees that Selling sequence won't continue further.


Fundamental analysis: Volatile Price-action towards the U.S. session opening Bell throughout yesterday's session (Hourly 1 chart has #1,795.80, #1,792 and #1,788.80 Supports ahead) as in the absence of High impact macroeconomic reports (besides situation in U.S.), Gold is inside a range on the last three Hourly 4 candles. Notice how this is taking place exactly below the Hourly 4 chart (was then) Support zone of #1,800.80 - #1,805.80. As long as Gold stays below #1,823.90 - #1,827.80, the Short-term bias is Bearish towards the Hourly 4 chart's #1,778.80 barrier and #1,765.80 Higher Low first extension. If however #1,792.80 breaks, I will most likely have a Bearish breakout signal towards #1,778.80, opportunity worth taking. Gold is Neutral on Short-term and within the Channel Down still on Weekly chart where Price-action can break and Trade towards both sides, configuration which brings more uncertainty as consolidation candles are still visible on the charts for the #3rd session in a row. On the other hand, if correlating assets Trade in Buyers favour, Gold may experience a rebound with an #30 point uptrend ahead, but that outlook has slim chances to develop.


Technical analysis: Gold reached the #1,792.80 mark throughout yesterday’s late U.S. session but didn't break it, and instead confirmed it once again as an Support as the strong Selling pressure from the DX (on excellent recovery) regarding Hourly 4 chart weighed more with Bond Yields uptrend in addition. The Price-action was rebounding back to last week’s Top as Daily chart’s Channel Up is invalidated and about to turn fully Bearish but Hourly 4 chart remains Neutral on Short-term which may postpone the downtrend. Hourly 4 chart printed an obvious Support zone and currently has strong intentions to break it. This only shows how Volatile Gold's Short-term (or Intra-day) can be, but still Gold Trades within my predicted values and no Neutral temporary consolidation is an cause for alarm. In these days, anticipation of the heavy news is in progress and pending announcement of new Trade policy. In my opinion if #1,792.80 doesn't hold then I will be looking at possibility of #1,778.80 and #1,752.80 in extension. But both ways, my analysis is always based on and designed eyeing Quarterly cycles and filters such events, so both ways (as soon DX corrects from the Top and Bond Yields fill #2 Bullish Gaps), Gold may be calling for upper extensions again and above.


My position: All in all, recovery is possible but for now correlating instruments are pointing to a Lower extension as I engaged my Selling order on #1,798.80 point. My Stop-loss is not far away, as I will consult DX and Bond Yields movements in order to maintain my orders properly. If current sentiment keeps it's bias, I am looking at decent possibility for #1,778.80 extension within #1 session. My Target is #1,770.80.

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