Hello and welcome to this analysis on NIFTY
From the high's of 18600 made in October 2021, every pullback leg of Nifty has been approx 88%
18350 on 18 Jan 2022 was 88% of the decline from 18600 to 16410
18115 on 4 April 2022 was 88% of the decline from 18350 to 15670
The current rally is at 78% of the decline from 18115 to 15185.
So what lies ahead, lets try to decipher probable scenarios
1. 88% retracement is near 17765 that coincides with the falling trend line - History repeats itself, rally ends near it, "tata, bye-bye, see you Longs."
2. It will breach above the falling trendline and continue its rally towards 18400 at least - Bull party continues, almost everything from A to Z eventually moves up, everyone (except those looking for a pullback and/or short) are happy!
3. It has completed its pullback and will do a pullback/resume downtrend, earliest confirmation as of today would come once it starts sustaining below 17375. - Just when everyone was hopeful that stocks are coming closer to their purchase cost, those stocks which have made us FII - "Full Invested Indians", because we bought them at very high levels and exiting in decline would have cost a huge loss, so holding onto these till .... ! PS This is not for Investors, this is for traders who become forceful investors in stocks where exit did not happen.
Until then
Happy Investing & Safe Trading
From the high's of 18600 made in October 2021, every pullback leg of Nifty has been approx 88%
18350 on 18 Jan 2022 was 88% of the decline from 18600 to 16410
18115 on 4 April 2022 was 88% of the decline from 18350 to 15670
The current rally is at 78% of the decline from 18115 to 15185.
So what lies ahead, lets try to decipher probable scenarios
1. 88% retracement is near 17765 that coincides with the falling trend line - History repeats itself, rally ends near it, "tata, bye-bye, see you Longs."
2. It will breach above the falling trendline and continue its rally towards 18400 at least - Bull party continues, almost everything from A to Z eventually moves up, everyone (except those looking for a pullback and/or short) are happy!
3. It has completed its pullback and will do a pullback/resume downtrend, earliest confirmation as of today would come once it starts sustaining below 17375. - Just when everyone was hopeful that stocks are coming closer to their purchase cost, those stocks which have made us FII - "Full Invested Indians", because we bought them at very high levels and exiting in decline would have cost a huge loss, so holding onto these till .... ! PS This is not for Investors, this is for traders who become forceful investors in stocks where exit did not happen.
Until then
Happy Investing & Safe Trading
Kommentera:
Nifty has entered into the Scenario 1 zone
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