My first attempt at buying springs at new lows, based on my backtesting, they offer great risk:reward profiles. They don't work a huge amount of the time, but when they work (turn into a change of trend) they more than make up for the losses, plus even when they don't work, we usually get some sort of knee jerk reversal for a small profit (like we did today). Gap down on large volume to new lows on Friday, followed by a higher low yesterday. I believe this Spring has an above average chance of turning into at least a moderate trend reversal because we have been trading sideways since the major gap down (SC-Selling Climax) in early August, and prior to that gap down, there was a 2 month trading range. I think we retest the support level back in June and July at the $21 level. Went long on some short dated $19 calls and longer dated $19 calls yesterday. Sold stock as hedge today, in case spring fails and we resume the long term down trend (which occurs more often than not); but locked in today's profits, and kept myself in play if a moderate to major trend change occurs. Good trading all.
Kommentera:
Closed out the trade on thursday last week when target hit on short dated options. Still in on the longer dated options. However, I am expecting a pullback into the range in the near future. Good trading all.