S&P500 Dead cat bounce?

The S&P500 index (SPX) is unfolding today the 3rd green 1D candle in a row, having gained back the vast majority of losses sustained last week. The December 28 rejection took place just below the 4820 All Time High (ATH) and as the 1D MACD is printing a sequence similar to the July 27 2023 peak, we expect the price to make a bearish reversal before the week is over.

The minimum target on this correction for us is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which currently is at 4580. Throughout this 14-month Channel Up though, the minimum decline % has been -8.06%. So if selling gets accelerated we don't rule out seeing a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test at 4450. In order to re-sell though this low, we need to get a candle closing below the 1D MA50 and then sell upon a bounce above the 1D MA50, similar to September 01 2023 and March 06 2023.

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