Daily:
- Ichimoku picture is turning to neutral from bullish again: Price, Tenkan and Kijun are above the Kumo (+), but Chikou hits Price candles (-) and the avergares (Tenkan, Kijun and Senkou lines) are flat (-). For a firm bullish setup Price should make a higher high.
- Heikin Ashi candle yesterday was a doji with both upper and lower wicks. Today candle is red. haDelta/SMA3 crosses down, but still above zero line
- You can also see a still wide rising wedge. The lower trend line and Kumo top together will be the first imoprtant support around 2070. Lower we have 2040-2045 as horizontal support and Kumo bottom together. If Price once ever breaks that, there will be only 2000 as a last (rather only psychological) support. Below 2000 it would be really bearish.
4H:
- price action got really weaker in last two days. Ichimoku setup is turning to neutral.
- Price still has not made a lower low, but it seems there will be some pressure from the top side as Tenkan/Kijun makes a weak bearish cross. Watch if Price can make a higher high. If no higher high, then it wil be ready to test 2080 first, and maybe even breaks below the Kumo later.
- DMI/ADX shows undecision, no momentum in trend.
- Heikin Ashi setup is mixed. Short term we may see some buying again, the question is what the signal will be at Kijun Sen.
I do not say it is time to go big short, signals so far rather points to undecision than a bigger selloff (4H supports are lower) but certanly the bullish Price action started to deteriorate. I still expect SP500 to underperform a lot this year. It is also a good question, how heavily it will react in case we finally see some 5-6 % correction on the very much overbought European stock mkts? One thing is sure: staying long US equities is not a good risk reward. I either stay neutral, or small short.
One more question: Why the hell is VIX April/May spread trades again at 165 points wide spread? It looks like the front end of the volatility curve is pricing steady or slightly higher prices and no heavy moves at all for the next three weeks. Well I have doubts wether this vol pricing is correct, but of course anything is possible.
- Ichimoku picture is turning to neutral from bullish again: Price, Tenkan and Kijun are above the Kumo (+), but Chikou hits Price candles (-) and the avergares (Tenkan, Kijun and Senkou lines) are flat (-). For a firm bullish setup Price should make a higher high.
- Heikin Ashi candle yesterday was a doji with both upper and lower wicks. Today candle is red. haDelta/SMA3 crosses down, but still above zero line
- You can also see a still wide rising wedge. The lower trend line and Kumo top together will be the first imoprtant support around 2070. Lower we have 2040-2045 as horizontal support and Kumo bottom together. If Price once ever breaks that, there will be only 2000 as a last (rather only psychological) support. Below 2000 it would be really bearish.
4H:
- price action got really weaker in last two days. Ichimoku setup is turning to neutral.
- Price still has not made a lower low, but it seems there will be some pressure from the top side as Tenkan/Kijun makes a weak bearish cross. Watch if Price can make a higher high. If no higher high, then it wil be ready to test 2080 first, and maybe even breaks below the Kumo later.
- DMI/ADX shows undecision, no momentum in trend.
- Heikin Ashi setup is mixed. Short term we may see some buying again, the question is what the signal will be at Kijun Sen.
I do not say it is time to go big short, signals so far rather points to undecision than a bigger selloff (4H supports are lower) but certanly the bullish Price action started to deteriorate. I still expect SP500 to underperform a lot this year. It is also a good question, how heavily it will react in case we finally see some 5-6 % correction on the very much overbought European stock mkts? One thing is sure: staying long US equities is not a good risk reward. I either stay neutral, or small short.
One more question: Why the hell is VIX April/May spread trades again at 165 points wide spread? It looks like the front end of the volatility curve is pricing steady or slightly higher prices and no heavy moves at all for the next three weeks. Well I have doubts wether this vol pricing is correct, but of course anything is possible.
