Just a guess at this point, but the SPY may be in an inverted cup and handle. thepatternsite.com/icup.html
The previous one did not fail, but I think it was because of the bull market momentum. Now that has subsided, this next cup and handle fails IMO.
I posted the following on a reply on someone else's chart post, and though I would copy and past it here, and I believe it applies to this chart. The failure of the handle here, could coincide with the next earnings seasons early reporting.
The mystery in all this is the currency wars and rate manipulations we did not ever have before, to this magnitude. It is skewing historical charts. i.e. the correlation between the EURUSD and Oil. There is less Oil demand and 5 MIL barrel per day supply from fracking, Saudi's wanting to punish the frackers, causing Oil stocks to correct, but the loss of jobs and that sector down, has not brought down the stock market farm. Rigs are shutting down, but we are having now called Fracking Log, which is a back log of fracked still still being produced and flooding the market, and we are running out of storage. Until that slows, might be months from now, OIL price will not bounce, and may reach $30. When the Euro reaches parity with dollar or below, and Euro strengthens, as will other currencies, , dollar corrects, Oil bounces. And then there is the GDP to debt ratios of the US and especially Japan. If Yellen and the FOMC raises rates, our debt and Japan's debt is so astronomical, the interest payments will soar, and cripple if not bankrupt each, causing a correction in the market, and a bond debt downgraded... which means there will be NO PLACE TO INVEST, and everyone runs to CASH. But with so much cash now from the printing, cash will be worth less, or eventually worthless. The whole thing is coming down to a death triangle, where there is nothing left to be done, and no escape. WHY will it come to this? ... because the leftest US government focused on promoting a political agenda (print, borrow, debase, save the earth, cool the planet, allow technology to replace humans and their jobs- at whatever the cost irresponsibly) , when they should (even if they did not want to have to do it) have totally focused on economics, and whatever it took to recover from the housing crash (repair credit, create a corporate friendly-tax friendly environment to CREATE JOBS!). Bottom line is, we did not reach escape velocity because we did not do whatever it took to create jobs. This next earnings season will bring down this market, which is very artificial. Stock buy backs was the last trick in the corporate bag to elevate stock prices, and there is simply a limit to how much they can do that. Unless they have another trick, the gig will be up, and there will be no way to inflate stock prices of corporations unless they can realize real actually revenue and profit growth again. Stockholders are not customers.
The previous one did not fail, but I think it was because of the bull market momentum. Now that has subsided, this next cup and handle fails IMO.
I posted the following on a reply on someone else's chart post, and though I would copy and past it here, and I believe it applies to this chart. The failure of the handle here, could coincide with the next earnings seasons early reporting.
The mystery in all this is the currency wars and rate manipulations we did not ever have before, to this magnitude. It is skewing historical charts. i.e. the correlation between the EURUSD and Oil. There is less Oil demand and 5 MIL barrel per day supply from fracking, Saudi's wanting to punish the frackers, causing Oil stocks to correct, but the loss of jobs and that sector down, has not brought down the stock market farm. Rigs are shutting down, but we are having now called Fracking Log, which is a back log of fracked still still being produced and flooding the market, and we are running out of storage. Until that slows, might be months from now, OIL price will not bounce, and may reach $30. When the Euro reaches parity with dollar or below, and Euro strengthens, as will other currencies, , dollar corrects, Oil bounces. And then there is the GDP to debt ratios of the US and especially Japan. If Yellen and the FOMC raises rates, our debt and Japan's debt is so astronomical, the interest payments will soar, and cripple if not bankrupt each, causing a correction in the market, and a bond debt downgraded... which means there will be NO PLACE TO INVEST, and everyone runs to CASH. But with so much cash now from the printing, cash will be worth less, or eventually worthless. The whole thing is coming down to a death triangle, where there is nothing left to be done, and no escape. WHY will it come to this? ... because the leftest US government focused on promoting a political agenda (print, borrow, debase, save the earth, cool the planet, allow technology to replace humans and their jobs- at whatever the cost irresponsibly) , when they should (even if they did not want to have to do it) have totally focused on economics, and whatever it took to recover from the housing crash (repair credit, create a corporate friendly-tax friendly environment to CREATE JOBS!). Bottom line is, we did not reach escape velocity because we did not do whatever it took to create jobs. This next earnings season will bring down this market, which is very artificial. Stock buy backs was the last trick in the corporate bag to elevate stock prices, and there is simply a limit to how much they can do that. Unless they have another trick, the gig will be up, and there will be no way to inflate stock prices of corporations unless they can realize real actually revenue and profit growth again. Stockholders are not customers.
