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US10Y Pull-back aiming for the 1D MA50 at least.

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TVC:US10Y   US statsobligationer 10 år avkastning
This is the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) on a 2 year horizon. As you see its aggressive rise can fit only on a Fibonacci Channel. The recent pull-back happened after the price hit the 2.5 Fibonacci extension and the 1D RSI a largely overbought level and the price is already on the 2.0 Fib.

As you see, the strongest buys throughout this period have been then the RSI hit the designated Support Zone. Also the strongest pull-backs dropped the price a whole 1.0 Fib level lower. From the previous 2.5 High, the low extension is at 1.5 and that gives us still some room to sell and target at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).

Technically it would be best to buy once the 1D RSI enters the Support Zone again, even if that means missing on the lowest possible level. From were we stand today that could be as low as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Regardless of the exact bottom, as long as the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) holds, which has been supporting since January 06 2021, the bullish target is the 2.5 Fib and the 3.0 in extension.

If the price breaks below the 1D MA300 though, we will consider this a long-term trend change to bearish and should switch to a sell-the-rebounds strategy. That would affect all asset classes from stocks to Gold etc, but when that happens we will have plenty of time to analyze it.





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