FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
It is worth mentioning that whatever the FED decides to do regarding the tapering of its QE, the outcome may be detrimental for stocks and as we know stocks makes up the indices (S&P, DOW and NASDAQ). Inflation, jobless claims, employment numbers everything leans toward a weaker economy, so the FED has a gun to their head anyway - print and pump more money that exceeds the demand and risk a economic recession. Not mentioning talks of tax hikes that will impact earnings. Or maybe all this is just natural and requires a correction in the stock market? A lot of articles were published begging the question, "Are stocks heavily oversold?" Rising bond yields isn't doing the indices any good either, I know I've mentioned very confusing things to many and may seem like a mouthful but a correction in this market and other indices are imminent.
Technical Analysis
So technically starting from the structure high (35634.7) created on August 16th; We experience a correction in the market down to the 50% fib level, where price is currently lingering around, now understanding price and it's flow (Structure) when the market makes a higher low in a strong uptrend the next move should be impulsive and create a new high. We experience all that except the market started slowing down when it approached the structure high and instead consolidated in that area for 14 days before we finally broke out negatively towards current prices. Without being to technical, price has been creating lower highs which is cause for downward movement but then we also have price creating a sort of round bottom which is cause for an upward movement, adding to the confusion in the markets now. This is what we call a consolidating market, there is no new money being pumped into the market, no significant positions are being added into the market by the BIG BOYS. Once they have a clue as to what the fundamentals will do they will act, at this stage I believe in the bearish bias.
Conclusion
Don't sent me personal messages or talk nasty to me in the comments when you see me posting a bullish scalping / intraday analysis, what I am offering you here is a broader perspective, when you buy do so with caution. You can always scale in as the market moves in your direction. A correction is needed, the move we've experienced is not sufficient for the market to reach for new highs, not saying it's not possible but unless something drastic happens the market will do what it's been doing since its existence, impulse and correct, and this time a correction is due.
Charts For Thought
It is worth mentioning that whatever the FED decides to do regarding the tapering of its QE, the outcome may be detrimental for stocks and as we know stocks makes up the indices (S&P, DOW and NASDAQ). Inflation, jobless claims, employment numbers everything leans toward a weaker economy, so the FED has a gun to their head anyway - print and pump more money that exceeds the demand and risk a economic recession. Not mentioning talks of tax hikes that will impact earnings. Or maybe all this is just natural and requires a correction in the stock market? A lot of articles were published begging the question, "Are stocks heavily oversold?" Rising bond yields isn't doing the indices any good either, I know I've mentioned very confusing things to many and may seem like a mouthful but a correction in this market and other indices are imminent.
Technical Analysis
So technically starting from the structure high (35634.7) created on August 16th; We experience a correction in the market down to the 50% fib level, where price is currently lingering around, now understanding price and it's flow (Structure) when the market makes a higher low in a strong uptrend the next move should be impulsive and create a new high. We experience all that except the market started slowing down when it approached the structure high and instead consolidated in that area for 14 days before we finally broke out negatively towards current prices. Without being to technical, price has been creating lower highs which is cause for downward movement but then we also have price creating a sort of round bottom which is cause for an upward movement, adding to the confusion in the markets now. This is what we call a consolidating market, there is no new money being pumped into the market, no significant positions are being added into the market by the BIG BOYS. Once they have a clue as to what the fundamentals will do they will act, at this stage I believe in the bearish bias.
Conclusion
Don't sent me personal messages or talk nasty to me in the comments when you see me posting a bullish scalping / intraday analysis, what I am offering you here is a broader perspective, when you buy do so with caution. You can always scale in as the market moves in your direction. A correction is needed, the move we've experienced is not sufficient for the market to reach for new highs, not saying it's not possible but unless something drastic happens the market will do what it's been doing since its existence, impulse and correct, and this time a correction is due.
Charts For Thought
Kommentera:
Going into Monday, the two busier sessions before NY may take price high and will therefore present us with short buy opportunities. We are only looking for short positions that we will hold from a higher price.
