This is an interesting spot for USDJPY. Most analysis I've seen over the past three months are in favor of a much stronger Dollar vs the Yen. I was SHORT early in 2016 from $118 looking for $110 before looking to go LONG all the way up to $121 for new and final 2017 high in USDJPY.
As time passes it looks like USDJPY may have topped out at$118.50. Structurally this does not look, to me at least, like a market that want's to go higher.
"SSI"(speculative sentiment index) supports this view with 71% of retail positions being LONG.
I can still see USDJPY going to $121 for a new high, but the window is closing. I will initiate a short position at $114.50 for possibly a move down to $100 over the next 4 Months.
As time passes it looks like USDJPY may have topped out at$118.50. Structurally this does not look, to me at least, like a market that want's to go higher.
"SSI"(speculative sentiment index) supports this view with 71% of retail positions being LONG.
I can still see USDJPY going to $121 for a new high, but the window is closing. I will initiate a short position at $114.50 for possibly a move down to $100 over the next 4 Months.