Powerful negative divergence on the weekly time frame ( a very reliable time frame in terms of divergences) suggest that the USDJPY will likely change its multi-week trend and likely turn down or move sideways. There is other confluence that would support this hypothesis, and a caveat here, though I am not an 'Elliottician' ( Elliott wavers) I use the patterns because they can be reliable if identified as a whole and not "fractalized counting" with that in mind I see a possible ABCXABC pattern for most assets including the leaders SPX and Nasdaq. This pattern can not be considered as reliable as weekly negative divergence because there is too much bias in Elliott wave analysis (the reason why I don't use it) but as I have mentioned above, if we can immediately see the pattern with out having to overanalyze and add thousands of counts and fractals, then and only then can we create a hypothesis based upon said pattern. To add to this sell volume on the last drop for the general markets has decreased by comparison to early spring sell offs. If this is the case and the USDJPY is the leader down (two of the largest economies USA and Japan would make good leaders in a recovery rally) then we can safely assume that other pairs such as the AUSUSD and the NZDUSD will follow and move up. The signal is NOT in yet. Therefore we must wait patiently before moving to sell the USD. Keep an eye on the oscillators on the weekly timeframe and the USDJPY will tell us when to sell it. This is good news to me because I was getting tired after the last drop the markets have only meandered and have done nothing except make me lose about .7%. Not a bad loss at all but very annoying.
Kommentera
Likely one last higher high before as long term sell.
Informationen och publikationerna är inte avsedda att vara, och utgör inte heller finansiella, investerings-, handels- eller andra typer av råd eller rekommendationer som tillhandahålls eller stöds av TradingView. Läs mer i Användarvillkoren.