Non-farm payrolls will be announced this Friday, that is, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States. Typical employment data, in terms of the trend of the international gold market on Monday during the non-farm payroll week, can be regarded as quite satisfactory. The rhythm of the agricultural week is that Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday are all range-bound, and it is more difficult to get out of a strong unilateral performance. After all, the market is still waiting to see the employment data performance this time.
Judging from Powell's optimistic assessment of the economy after the market interest rate decision to raise interest rates last week, the market also needs more excellent data to prove the continued recovery of the US economy in the future. At the same time, it will reduce the market's worries about the US economic recession, thereby reducing the market's expectations of cutting interest rates within the year. So the continuous release of excellent economic data will make Fed officials more sure in the future that there is hope for a soft landing of the US economy, and it is gradually amplifying.
In terms of the current recovery of inflation and the subsequent positive manufacturing data, the US economic trend has changed. I believe that Fed Chairman Powell has got a temporary respite, but don't think that the market risk has decreased, or start to think that the economic recovery can be smooth sailing.
At present, although the economic problems of the United States have been temporarily alleviated on the surface, and in the future we will usher in more speeches that are good for the dollar, especially Yellen. canvassing for the US dollar's international status. These seem to me to be a clear hope that during the economic weakness cycle, the more active blood in the global economy can be injected into the near US economy. This kind of blood transfusion is not uncommon in history.
Solving the urgent need does not mean that all economic problems have been solved. What we need to know is that the current inversion of long-term and short-term U.S. bond yields in the United States is always serious. The impact of this on the future gold price trend, at present, I can only see the risk, but not the direction. Because I can't guess what kind of monetary policy the Federal Reserve will use in the future to solve such problems.
The only thing I can think of is to increase the yield of long-term bonds. How to increase it? I can't figure it out right now, I'll talk about it when I figure it out. But what I want to remind in this article is that everyone needs to be down-to-earth and do a good job now, but also be prepared for possible risks in the future. Don't be too optimistic, and don't be too pessimistic. Move forward while groping, and maintain a humble and learning attitude. Always be in awe of the market.
Some people may say that an article without an opinion is nonsense. I just discovered the problem at present, and I haven't thought about the impact and development in the future. And my point of view is to maintain awe of the market and be prepared for danger in times of peace. It is enough to be able to express this step. In addition, not knowing, not knowing, not understanding these things is not a shameful thing. On the contrary, what can be proved is that we are thinking, rather than following the trend and following what others say.
Today's gold technical analysis:
The first large range of international gold has not yet broken through, so you should not look at 2000 if it rises slightly, and look at 1900 if it falls slightly. This kind of sentiment has no meaning for trading. Secondly, the short-term one-hour level is the shock of the low point rising to a new high point, that is, everyone can pay attention to the 1951 support within the day, which is a key price. A small stop loss is not too bullish. At the top, focus on the suppression of the 1978 trend line, because the four-hour level belongs to the trend of new lows and lows and downward moves of highs. So the high level can be considered bearish in 1978. Then there is the 1933 support at the bottom of the shock range. Personally, I am more inclined to go down. So today we will focus on whether the low point of 1951 is broken. If it falls below, there is a high probability that it will run to around 1932.
The trend is still floating within my analysis, hello traders, please continue to pay attention to my analysis, I wish you a happy life
Handel aktiv:
gold is falling
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Believe me, I will definitely make money today
