MQP-IRLC-004 NOW COMES THE REAL EXTREME VOL

HEADER - This is continuation from post 001, 002, and 003.

SUMMARY - These are the boxes derived from most updated curves. I just want to keep it simple for the rest of the way.

DETAILS - No change in plans. Long to 1950 at midnight. Short at midnight. Cover Friday 8:30 AM ET at 1860 again.

NOTES - Will add later.

Kommentera:

NOTES 1) this move has a "very specific set of curves" and it happens and over
a) like this morning when it moved to 1902 and rugpulled to 1879
b) I had to be on 1 min bar at the exact angle to see it, but the setup was there
c) in fact we went through a very similar move to this in late Feb to early Mar 2022
d) but back then, I didn't have the tools I have now to recognize the rugpull that's coming at midnight

Kommentera:

NOTES 2) the curves are bending up again implying a top before midnight say... 8 pm ET
a) but like this morning when it said 6PM... and had to reset
b) so I imagine the in between vol will reset it again for midnight
c) but stay in the trade...
d) be prepared for more than expected vol at 1920-1928
e) I am expecting 15-20, I think that is legit considering the setup
f) meaning I've adjusted for extra vol already, but you never know do you?

Kommentera:

NOTES 3) second box is late about an hour
a) meaning it should left an hour
b) that just got updated now

Kommentera:

c) maybe 90 minutes

Kommentera:

12:51 I can't tell how late the second box is
a) it maybe very late
b) or maybe there should be another box between first and second box
c) because I don't see us getting past 1905 before New York closes
d) i could be completely wrong

Kommentera:

so extra box like this:

Kommentera:

12:55 no change in strategy
1) but tactically we know there's going to be shenanigans at 1920-1928
2) so keep that in mind
3) but YOU HAVE TO BE THERE THE ENTIRE TIME TO MANAGE IT ...
4) if you want to swing it

Kommentera:

1:52 PM bearish window on 2 min bars closing at 2:45 PM
1)extra 30 min to be safe
2)we should close NY 4PM at 1905
3)so between 4 to 5pm we should break that channel discussed in 003
4)all markets close 5PM AND REOPEN AT 6PM
5) I will be live from 6PM tonight to noon on Friday
6) these 18 hours have potential to make your year if you are diligent

Kommentera:

3:08 PM SUPER CRITICAL INFLECTION 1894.xx
1) bears just bought themselves another 30 min
2) bulls need a reversal up to close 1905 in 50 min
3) or else we may have a headache on our hands
4) 1891 a decent stop if you need one

Kommentera:

3:51 PM NOT GOOD CLOSE UNLESS WE MOVE UP 7 PTS IN 9 MINUTES
1) price action from 4:30 to 5:00 in after market needs to show real strength or we are going to lose the set up
2) I am not sure what that means short term, for the following 72 hours
3) when I know something will post asap

Kommentera:

5:28 PM UPDATE
1) markets reopen at 6:00
2) we still have a setup
3) but now it has reversed to conditional 60/40
4) that means s we need 1920 by 7:45 PM ET

Kommentera:

6:42 PM like watching paint dry...
1) if it doesn't move like in 3 min, I just don't see it working...
2) bc techs say it should've moved already...
3) so at which should we call it?
4) bc now, it has to moclve 22.5 up in 65 minutes...
5) for what reason?
6) sorry to disappoint... but I am stump....
7) so put in hard stops like 1895.5 or something tight...
8) we may have to call it a night...

Kommentera:

Typo at moved not "moclve"

Kommentera:

9 PM THURS
1) 1899, I'm done
2) I don't understand why we stopped
3) it's like all of sudden, everybody stopped trading or something
4) like loading a cannon, lighting it and nothing happens...
5) I am frustrated, so I'm going to bed
6) sorry it didn't work out...

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Kommentera:

8:26 AM ET THIS POST HAS ENDED ---- WARNING ---- SHORT CURVES LOOK TOTALLY BEARISH NOW AIMING FOR 1872. BE CAREFUL!!

Kommentera:

1) I don't know if it needs more zig zag
2) in order to build bear momentum, before a big move...
3) but definitely be careful if you are long anymore, I am not
4) I closed all longs just now