Horror data strikes, beware of gold rushing higher and falling

The most noteworthy thing this week is tonight's US retail sales data for June. It is worthy of attention because it is a four-star data, and second, it can also affect the direction of inflation. This data counts the total value of goods sold by all stores engaged in retail business. It plays an important guiding role in judging a country's economic status and prospects, because retail sales directly reflect changes in consumer spending.


From the perspective of historical performance, this data does not have a particularly obvious pattern, sometimes rising and sometimes falling, sometimes positive and sometimes negative, but considering the good performance in the same period last year, the expected value given by the market this time has higher expectations for the US dollar, so A year-on-year decline is likely and there is no pressing expectation, which means it will be negative for the dollar.


In addition, the US NAHB housing market index and the monthly rate of industrial output will be announced today, so stay tuned.


After three trading days of consolidation, it is finally time for a breakthrough today. It's not that there has been no movement in the past two days, the main reason is that the range is too small. The market price is 10 yuan high and low, the taste is tasteless, it is a pity to throw it away.



The price of gold once broke through 1964 points today, setting a new high for this week. Once it is confirmed to stand here, it means that the top will continue to test the pressure of 1977--83.



We said earlier that 1977 was twice the distance below the daily line after the head and shoulders breakout, and 1983 was the June rally high. In a bullish trend, the bearish trend is completely over, and vice versa, there is still a possibility of a decline.


From the perspective of indicators, the overbought situation of the daily line and the 4-hour level indicator RSI has been restored, but it is still seriously overbought in 1 hour. Of course, this does not mean that the market cannot continue to rise against the overbought, and it is still possible to remain strong. There are even deviations.



What we need to pay attention to is that if the data in the evening is bullish, after the gold rises, it will reach the pressure zone, and then cooperate with the top divergence to easily produce a large downward trend.



Therefore, high altitude is the first choice for trading today, pay attention to the stagflation situation in the 1875--83 area and choose an opportunity to enter the market.


Lower support 1945--1940


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