Market Update - Risk Management A discussion about today's market and how swing trades played out and how risk mamangement plays a huge part in this and needs to be respected.
Stockmarkets
Seasonal Futures Trading Patterns S&P 500 Hey traders today I wanted to go over what I believe are the best Seasonal Futures and Forex trades during the year. There are many markets that have seasonal patterns. Such as Forex, Stocks, Futures, and Commodities. Knowing the best time to trade to look for these Seasonal Futures and Forex opportunities will help you in your trading. This series on Seasonal Futures and Forex will be ongoing with several videos. The first video will be about the S&P 500 futures and how to trade them seasonally.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
LEARN TO TRADE THE FOREX WITH OPTIONSForex Trading Alternative Using Options to trade the Forex Market.
Hey traders here is in my opinion the best way to build up a small forex account. By trading options on the forex. This strategy will give you staying power in the forex market. It is a great alternative to trading on margin accounts exposing yourself to unlimited risk with a traditional forex broker.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
REVIEW: DJI (Wall Street), DAX and nuclear options. I've looked into the DJI and the DAX because they are connected. I also considered events affecting the Hong Kong index. In the text below, I consider China's 'nuclear option'.
Overall I'd say the probability is greater for the south on these indices (from this point in time). But caution - because there is a residual probability for the north and I can't know how far south the markets may go if the markets are with me.
These are very troubled times.
1. The markets are overbought because of QE4.0, lowering of interest rates and high hopes about a China 'Phase one' trade deal.
2. But there is trouble in the Hong Kong Stock market.
3. POTUS signed the Hong Kong Democracy Act which could cause the Chinese to retaliate in some way (nobody knows how).
The 15th of December 2019 is an important date on which $160 Billion of tariffs on imports to the USA, get lumped on China or they are withdrawn. If the tariffs are withdrawn, expect markets to head to the moon (stupidly). If the tariffs are applied, expect a correction of some sort.
Bond troubles
In other trouble China has begun the so called nuclear option of selling off US Treasuries. Note that Treasuries are bonds, which means that money is owed to China by America i.e. they represent a debt owed by the US.
Why would China sell off US Treasuries - which are debts owed to China? Perhaps because China expects the US Dollar to be worth less in times to come. It's like this - if I lend you money fixed in USD value, and then you decide to devalue your US dollar by various means, it means I'm getting back less value. For an exploration of Bonds go here .
China holds about $1.2 Trillion of US debt. A sell off of US Treasuries is said to destabilise financial markets. How - is a separate complex story. The point is that China's retaliation on the Hong Kong Act could be this 'nuclear option'.
The point of all this is that there are complex issues affecting the markets.
Disclaimer: Nothing shared here is investment advice or encouragement to trade in securities. If you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
US Stock Markets: And what's Mueller got to do with you?!This screencast is speculative - and I invite the full brain power of Tradingview's community to consider the variables which might affect the US Stock Markets around this time. Let's do this together.
The stock market has retreated, probably due to nerves about the Mueller report - among several other things. If the report contains nothing on which Trump is impeachable then, I'm expecting a pump north.
Mueller's hit list so far has been :
1. PAUL MANAFORT
2. RICK GATES
3. MICHAEL COHEN
4. MICHAEL FLYNN
5. GEORGE PAPADOPOULOS
6. ALEX VAN DER ZWAAN
7. RICHARD PINEDO
(Names are in all caps only due to copy and pasting. Names and convictions are all in the public domain, so I'm not defaming anybody.)
Some may think that with so much dirt around it's unlikely that Trump will come out of this clean. Hey, this bull market is about Trump - let's not debate that. If Trump goes down the markets go down like lead balloons. Alternatively, if Trump comes out clean enough, expect bullish moves which may then be limited by other factors.
Separate to Mueller's investigation and report, there are 16 other investigations into Trump. If just one sticks, there could be catastrophic collapse of the American markets - with shock waves globally, hitting Forex as well.
We have other variables to consider :
1. The Fed 'money printing' press going to be turned up.
2. Bleaker than expected economic projections by the Fed and Draghi.
3. Expected weaker US Dollar - creating bullish pressure in the long term.
4. Flattening or inverted yield curves
5. Uncertainty's and delays on deals with China.
6. Potential Brexit shock waves.
7. Germany struggling against recession.
8. 'Housing' market bubbles in several countries including the US, in trouble.
9. US and Global debt totally out of control.
10 etc. .. and much more.
Sorry - I don't know what's gonna happen. I do not give tips on entry positions.
THE BIG EIGHT: Where is the world heading?In this screencast I review 8 important markets. There are some common levels and patterns of price movements. The India50 is the odd man (woman) out.
The forecast of a global recession has been made (not by me). This is related largely to global debt now standing at around $233 TRILLION US-Dollars and debt in America currently around $22 Trillion US-Dollars. The picture is complicated by trade tensions, political and other macroeconomic events.
Our inheritance is will be the result of a decade of ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing (aka printing of money), now complicated by global geopolitical and macroeconomic issues.
Stock markets (and related indices) have a complex but important relationship to the Forex markets.
Stock buyback failures could herald a crashThe SPBUYUP index has not been shown in a published idea on Tradingview before now (I checked). It is the index which tells how much companies are buying back their own stock to keep the S&P500 afloat.
So if this fails, market 'manipulations' of the S&P500 could fail. Of course, this not the only thing that influences the S&P500 but it is a significant marker of influence or lack of it.
DANGER: Amazon and FANGS could be in trouble. Amazon has just crossed $1 Trillion in market value.
This is without doubt a parabolic expansion. History has shown us that parabolic charts like this suffer a significant correction. Do not expect me to say when - as I have no crystal ball.
Tech stocks have been propping up Wall Streets expansion. But there is a problem. The stock markets in the US and around the world are being eroded in value. Google is your friend. Around the globe there is market contraction due to trade wars and international political tensions.
Reliable research shows that value of stocks below the top 30 is falling in average. This is a danger signal.
The traditional 'news' is not your friend. From day to day we hear different news casts. These people are there to sell their news - that's all. Dig deeper. The world is in trouble!
Amazon cannot fight and win over the whole world. It just ain't that big or powerful.
Tech stocks have been living on borrowed time and feeding frenzies. If Amazon goes south, and the rest of tech goes south, expect to see major corrections on Wall Street.
Those looking to short the stock markets may wish to look for trend changes on the 4H - 6H time frames and with Amazon.
Dow Jones (Wall Street) - crash is an irrelevant issue.I explain in the screencast why I think 'crash' is an irrelevant issue.
It is impossible to know whether 'we're in a crash' because a crash can only be discovered well into into it or after it has happened.
True trend-followers will appreciate that all one can do is find a suitable trend - and follow it. Simple but I didn't say it was easy. In fact I will assert that true trend followers really don't care whether there will be a crash or the next market melt up.
What people (in general) want, is to be able to foretell the future. Sorry, they can't - and no guru has such powers. We might prepare for the future in various ways. This is not ordinary life. It's not everyday activities like trying to find the safest point in time to cross a road. The reality is that markets are wild random things - pure chaos of a different order - where the 'normal rules' we may apply in everyday life just fail miserably. As I've said in other posts, a whole new mindset is needed to manage this very different sort of chaos.
With 76 to -90% of real trader accounts consistently losing money (hard data), the battle is not with the charts or the markets. The battle is with yourself and your psychology.
Japan 225 possibly in a reversal zoneIn this screencast I'm looking both at the daily and 4H time frames on the JP225USD.
The daily is into a potential reversal zone based on my methodology.
The 4H is probably into a PRZ based on an ABCD pattern.
Stay lively - stalk carefully. :))
Big trouble in 'Little China'In this video I review again some evidence that everybody can see with their own eyes. The US30 or the DJI is in trouble.
There are observable signs of a trend change in a parabolic picture from the Weekly right down to the 4H time frame.
The market is convulsing with hope and greed. But the geopolitical situation is very unstable at at this time, and a terribly overbought market as it is, is pretty fragile.
Have a look at some entertaining and informative videos from Francis Hunt which goes into greater detail.
DOW Jones - SKULL & BONES day crash to be real deal!
Dow Jones and US Indices in deep sell off more serious then most suspect
