This is a continuation of my series on forecasting techniques. The idea behind the Simple Mean method is to somehow extend historical mean to the future. In this case a forecast equals to last value plus average change.
Holt's Forecasting method
Holt (1957) extended simple exponential smoothing to allow the forecasting of data with a trend. This method involves a forecast equation and two smoothing equations (one for the level and one for the trend):
Forecast equation: ŷ = l + h * b
Level equation: l = alpha * y + (1 - alpha) * (l + b)
Trend equation: b = beta * (l - l) +...
For completeness here is a naive method with seasonality. The idea behind naive method with seasonality is to take last value from same season and treat it as a forecast. Its counterpart, naive method without seasonality, involves taking last mean value, i.e forecast = sma(x, p).
This script is similar to the "Hi-Lo" or "Clear" methods of painting bars. Instead of using the tips/edges of the candles like those two, the "(H+L)/2" method uses the change in (high+low)/2 to paint the bars. This gives you some similar results if you were to be binary with the candle coloring. However, my coloring scheme is not entirely binary. There are 5...