NBD01M2025 trade ideas
RISING WEDGE CHANNEL IN NATURALGAS📈 NATURAL GAS – 1H TIMEFRAME UPDATE
Natural Gas has been climbing nicely inside an upward channel, and right now it’s retesting the lower trendline after a strong rally last week.
🔸 Support zone: Around 306–307 (channel bottom)
🔸 EMA 55: Acting as dynamic support near 300 -295
🔸 Volume: Picking up on the recent dip — worth watching!
🔍 What to Look Out For:
✅ If support holds: We could see a bounce toward 315–322 levels.
⚠️ If it breaks below: Momentum may shift and pull price down toward the 295 region.
Let’s see if the bulls can defend the trendline!
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments & hit the like if this helped!
Nat Gas Right Shoulder Forming How high will nat gas go as it forms the right shoulder? No one truthfully knows but we can all speculate. It may not even form a right shoulder. As I write this, nat gas is hitting resistance of PWH(previous week high). A close above the PWH can set the stage for a R1 challenge on the monthly pivot time frame which is $4.126. Given the weak fundamental demand this seems unlikely. I doubt the commercials will sit idle and let price go there. It would be too good to pass up and they are too powerful. If and when this move fails, that sets the stage for $3.58 test(monthly pivot) and then a PWL of $3.05. This would complete the H&S neckline which means sub $2 could be possible. A lot of possibilities at this point so it is wait and see right now.
NATGAS Under Pressure! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for NATGAS below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 3.667
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 3.408
Recommended Stop Loss - 3.818
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NATGAS SWING SHORT|
✅NATGAS has been growing recently
And Gas seems locally overbought
So as the pair is approaching a
Horizontal resistance of 3.80$
Price decline is to be expected
SHORT🔥
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NATGAS: Short Trading Opportunity
NATGAS
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short NATGAS
Entry - 3.667
Sl - 3.862
Tp - 3.269
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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NG1!: The Market Is Looking Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse NG1! together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 3.653 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
NATGAS Resistance Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS is growing sharply
But the price is nearing a
Strong horizontal resistance
Around 3.80$ so after the
Retest on Monday we will be
Expecting a local bearish
Correction as Gas is already
Locally overbought
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long Term H&S Pattern with a Completed Intermediate H&S PatternHead and Shoulder pattern are one of the most reliable patterns. And when you think about the psychology behind them it makes sense why. Essentially natural gas pricing in the long run is driven by fundamentals but speculators who trade solely on technical analysis add gasoline to the fire to cause massive price dislocations. The H&S pattern is an example of this. Fundamentals drive the price up. Speculators participate forming the left shoulder. Profit taking ensues completing the left shoulder. Speculators then tap the well again to form the head. At this point fundamental traders(hedgers like large commercials) can’t pass up the massive price dislocations and lock in large profits for future deliveries. Speculators panic and close longs once they lose control. Right shoulder is forming. Speculators will try to tap the well again thinking they can control the large commercials. Large commercials allow them to be right for a short period so they can sell even more future deliveries. In the end the commercials win out and price goes lower. Neckline complete. Speculators panic and massive selling ensues. The expected move to complete the pattern would be the distance from the head to the neckline in terms of percentage. So a $5 head and $3 neckline means a 40% target lower from the $3 neckline. $1.80 seems like a lofty price target. Price targets are suggestions in patterns. They are not absolutes.
These patterns fail as well so while this pattern is forming technically, it is not complete. In my experience, anticipating patterns has a 100% failure rate.
Natural Gas Technical Convergence Signals a Major Trend ReversalNatural Gas is showing early signs of completing a multi-year bottom and entering a potential new bullish impulse cycle.
🔹 Key Technical Highlights:
✅ A-B-C correction ended at $1.50 (Feb 2024); impulse to $4.90 may be Wave 1.
🔁 Current pullback looks like Wave 2, potentially bottoming near $2.85–3.00.
🔼 Golden Cross (50 > 200 DMA) occurred in Oct 2024 — rare long-term bullish signal.
🔃 RSI & MACD momentum are rebounding from deeply oversold zones.
📊 Volume shows signs of capitulation and early accumulation near $3.00.
📐 Chart patterns: Triangle + falling wedge breakout (on 4 hr charts) = bottoming structure.
🌀 Seasonal cycles suggest spring weakness may be ending — summer upside risk rising.
💼 COT positioning: Specs remain extremely short, while commercials are net long — a classic contrarian buy setup.
⚖️ Gold/NG Ratio has peaked and is declining — historically a bullish signal for NG heading into 2026.
🔍 Directional Bias:
Cautiously Bullish
Majority of signals are now aligned or turning bullish. A sustained breakout above $3.75–4.00 would confirm a broader trend shift.
🧭 Trade Setups:
📍 Short-Term (1–2 weeks)
Entry: $3.00–3.20 | Target: $3.75 | Stop: <$2.85
Play the bounce from oversold zone and 200DMA test
📍 Medium-Term (2–8 weeks)
Accumulate: $3.00–3.30 | Target: $4.90–5.80
Possible Wave 3 breakout pending above $4.90
📍 Long-Term (3–12+ months)
Position: $2.90–3.50 | Target: $6.20 → $9+
Post-correction rally underway; risk/reward is favorable on dips
🗓️ April 28 Candle Recap:
Bullish engulfing candle on rising volume. If bulls hold this breakout into May, the $2.85–3.00 floor may be confirmed.
🔚 Bottom Line:
NG appears to be transitioning from a long bear market into a new upcycle. The stars are aligning — just be ready for near-term chop.
Natural Gas Ready to Explode?In recent months, Natural Gas (NG1!) has shown significant volatility, but now there are clear signals suggesting a major directional move could be imminent.
On the weekly technical chart, price has bounced from a strong demand zone between 2.50 and 2.70 USD/MMBtu, an area historically defended by institutional players. Currently, it is trading above 3.30 USD, consolidating in preparation for the next move. Key resistance zones to watch are between 3.90 and 4.20 USD, a region of high volume confluence and institutional supply.
Retail sentiment is extremely interesting: over 75% of retail traders are currently long. Historically, an excess of retail longs often leads to either corrections or accumulation/distribution phases, as large players tend to act against the majority.
Looking at the COT Report, the data supports the bullish thesis: non-commercials (speculative funds) remain net short, while commercials (physical operators) are increasing their long positions, indicating expectations of higher real demand in the medium term. This is a historically bullish signal, although it may not materialize immediately: commercials often start accumulating well before price movements occur.
Finally, seasonality favors the bulls: historically, from late April through mid-June, Natural Gas tends to perform positively, fueled by storage accumulation ahead of summer and the following winter season.
Strategically, a consolidation phase above 2.90–3.00 USD could serve as a base for larger moves towards 3.90 and eventually 4.90 USD, with the bullish scenario invalidated only below the 2.80 USD area.
Potential Decline of Natural Gas Prices to $2.43–$2.74Brief Overview of Events and News Explaining the Potential Decline of Natural Gas Prices to $2.43–$2.74.
➖ Weather Forecast and Reduced Demand
On April 23, 2025, the U.S. National Weather Service forecasted milder-than-average weather across the U.S. for late spring and early summer 2025, particularly in key gas-consuming regions like the Northeast and Midwest.
Warmer weather reduces the demand for heating, a primary driver of natural gas consumption. This led to a 2.5% decline in Henry Hub natural gas futures, settling at $3.05 per MMBtu on April 24, 2025.
Source: Reuters
➖ High U.S. Natural Gas Inventories
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on April 17, 2025, that natural gas inventories increased by 75 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ending April 11, 2025, significantly exceeding the five-year average build of 50 Bcf. Total U.S. inventories are now 20% above the five-year average, indicating an oversupply that pressures prices downward.
Source: EIA, "Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report," April 17, 2025
➖ Weak Global LNG Demand
On April 22, 2025, Bloomberg reported a decline in demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia, particularly in China, due to an economic slowdown and a shift to cheaper coal alternatives. China’s LNG imports in Q1 2025 dropped 10% year-over-year, reducing export opportunities for U.S. gas producers and adding pressure on domestic prices.
Source: Bloomberg, "China’s LNG Imports Fall as Coal Use Rises," April 22, 2025
Technical Analysis
Natural gas futures (NYMEX) are currently around $3.15 per MMBtu as of April 28, 2025, following a recent decline from a peak of approximately $4.90 in 2025.
Fibonacci retracement levels indicate correction targets at 38.2% ($2.74) and 50% ($2.43).
Fundamental factors, such as oversupply and reduced demand, support a bearish scenario that could drive prices to these levels in the near term.
Nearest Entry Point Target:
• $2.74
Growth Potential:
Long-term:
• $10
Screenshot:
NATGAS Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear friends,
NATGAS looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 2.964 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 2.929
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NG1!: The Market Is Looking Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse NG1! together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 2.951 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 3.042 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
NATGAS: Expecting Bearish Continuation! Here is Why:
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current NATGAS chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the downward direction.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
NG1! BUYERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
NG1! SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 3.247
Target Level: 3.717
Stop Loss: 2.932
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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