ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.02.26
AUD and NZD suffered another session of heavy selling and marked fresh lows - the move was mostly algo driven to run stops and help clean the map for dividend season. Happy to sit short and look to add from higher levels. The USD demand remains supported but given that it we are approaching dividend season, remember, there will be strong local AUD demand inside this 0.65xx handle. If you are not already holding shorts from above then look to sell future rallies into 0.665x.
The medium term swing we are tracking:
A rather wild week on the technical side after a significant break through the 0.670x support, this is unlocking a test of 0.645x RBA floor via rate differential. This move looks particularly vulnerable considering where we are with Copper and Iron ore:
Retail have loaded the boat on the sell side and it is beginning to look very crowded from a positioning perspective. The local AUD export demand will squeeze these soft hands to eventually capitulate with a breakout campaign before resuming the leg lower to cause maximum pain!
Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!!
The medium term swing we are tracking:
A rather wild week on the technical side after a significant break through the 0.670x support, this is unlocking a test of 0.645x RBA floor via rate differential. This move looks particularly vulnerable considering where we are with Copper and Iron ore:
Retail have loaded the boat on the sell side and it is beginning to look very crowded from a positioning perspective. The local AUD export demand will squeeze these soft hands to eventually capitulate with a breakout campaign before resuming the leg lower to cause maximum pain!
Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!!
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