2013 vs 2017 bubble & correction comparison: bottom found?
After the 2013 bubble, it took 59 weeks for bitcoin to find its absolute bottom. The correction was severe; 85%.
After the bottom was found, bitcoin went sideways for 36 weeks. Total length from ATH to new rally; 95 weeks.
The current bottom for bitcoin was hit after 27 weeks; the correction was 71%. Bitcoin has corrected much faster this time; it only took 61% of the time it took after the previous bubble to correct to 71%. If we MUST correct to 85%, then it should take no longer than 36 weeks to find the absolute bottom because 59 x 0.61 = 36 weeks. However, it's already been 35 weeks since bitcoin hit a new ATH, so based on this calculation, bitcoin should drop to around $3k (which is almost exactly 85% correction) within the next 1-2 weeks.
However, the possibility exists that the bottom has already been found. If this is the case, it means we have already been going sideways for 8 weeks. After the previous bubble's bottom was found, bitcoin went sideways for 36 weeks. Since bitcoin is moving much faster nowadays, the sideways period should be much shorter, namely 36 x 0.61 = 22 weeks. As stated, we have already been going sideways for 8 weeks, so if the bottom has already been found, there are 14 weeks (22 - 8) of sideways action left.
If these calculations and assumptions are correct, the bitcoin rally should resume at the end of November.
After the bottom was found, bitcoin went sideways for 36 weeks. Total length from ATH to new rally; 95 weeks.
The current bottom for bitcoin was hit after 27 weeks; the correction was 71%. Bitcoin has corrected much faster this time; it only took 61% of the time it took after the previous bubble to correct to 71%. If we MUST correct to 85%, then it should take no longer than 36 weeks to find the absolute bottom because 59 x 0.61 = 36 weeks. However, it's already been 35 weeks since bitcoin hit a new ATH, so based on this calculation, bitcoin should drop to around $3k (which is almost exactly 85% correction) within the next 1-2 weeks.
However, the possibility exists that the bottom has already been found. If this is the case, it means we have already been going sideways for 8 weeks. After the previous bubble's bottom was found, bitcoin went sideways for 36 weeks. Since bitcoin is moving much faster nowadays, the sideways period should be much shorter, namely 36 x 0.61 = 22 weeks. As stated, we have already been going sideways for 8 weeks, so if the bottom has already been found, there are 14 weeks (22 - 8) of sideways action left.
If these calculations and assumptions are correct, the bitcoin rally should resume at the end of November.
Kommentera:
Also note that on the weekly, the possibility of a bullish MACD crossover is likely to happen soon. The bearish crossover happened +/- 8 months ago, the last notable bullish crossover happened almost 2 years ago (October 2016).