What's shown in the chart here represents what I think may be a best-case scenario for Bitcoin and the crypto market as we move into 2024-25.
I have a long-running theory that
DXY
will eventually turn back up and move above its Sept '22 highs (112-114), and when it does, we'll enter one of the longest bear markets many of us have seen in our lifetime. I first posted about this back in January this year, here:
As the US Dollar is the world reserve currency, what the Dollar Index does affects everything else. DXY on the macro tends to represent a near mirror image, or a macro negative correlation, with Bitcoin, Crypto, and Stock markets (as well as other markets). On lower timeframes they do diverge and positively correlate at times, even on higher timeframes occasionally. But, on the macro, they almost always eventually do the opposite.
So, what is going on in the best-case scenario, for Bitcoin, as shown above, and what could be some other scenarios that may occur?
Best-Case for Bitcoin
In the best-case, we see DXY continue down to monthly support, as Bitcoin moves back up towards its ATHs.
As DXY tests weekly and then monthly support, Bitcoin pushes on and eventually breaks its ATH; making a new ATH. It could even reach or breach 100k, briefly.
Once DXY begins to move back up and gets above its October highs (~106), Bitcoin moves back below 62k and then moves to test that level again.
Bitcoin begins its longest bear market as the Dollar index moves above 112-114 and starts making new highs, potentially heading towards 1980s ATH.
Poorer Outlooks
The sooner that DXY moves up above its October highs (~106) and gets above Sept '22 highs (112-114), the sooner this recovery or bull run will end:
- Very Soon: Recoveries get cut short, Bitcoin moves down shy of reaching its ATHs
- Somewhat Soon: Double-tops similar to above, but with lower highs and a sooner downturn
Should DXY lose monthly support and head well below 100, this idea may be invalidated or bull runs could be extended for longer and higher highs possible.
Please let me know what you think, I'm still learning and growing as an analyst and would love to get some feedback from veterans. Thanks again for reading, and best of luck with your charting and trading!
I have a long-running theory that
DXY
will eventually turn back up and move above its Sept '22 highs (112-114), and when it does, we'll enter one of the longest bear markets many of us have seen in our lifetime. I first posted about this back in January this year, here: 
As the US Dollar is the world reserve currency, what the Dollar Index does affects everything else. DXY on the macro tends to represent a near mirror image, or a macro negative correlation, with Bitcoin, Crypto, and Stock markets (as well as other markets). On lower timeframes they do diverge and positively correlate at times, even on higher timeframes occasionally. But, on the macro, they almost always eventually do the opposite.
So, what is going on in the best-case scenario, for Bitcoin, as shown above, and what could be some other scenarios that may occur?
Best-Case for Bitcoin
In the best-case, we see DXY continue down to monthly support, as Bitcoin moves back up towards its ATHs.
As DXY tests weekly and then monthly support, Bitcoin pushes on and eventually breaks its ATH; making a new ATH. It could even reach or breach 100k, briefly.
Once DXY begins to move back up and gets above its October highs (~106), Bitcoin moves back below 62k and then moves to test that level again.
Bitcoin begins its longest bear market as the Dollar index moves above 112-114 and starts making new highs, potentially heading towards 1980s ATH.
Poorer Outlooks
The sooner that DXY moves up above its October highs (~106) and gets above Sept '22 highs (112-114), the sooner this recovery or bull run will end:
- Very Soon: Recoveries get cut short, Bitcoin moves down shy of reaching its ATHs
- Somewhat Soon: Double-tops similar to above, but with lower highs and a sooner downturn
Should DXY lose monthly support and head well below 100, this idea may be invalidated or bull runs could be extended for longer and higher highs possible.
Please let me know what you think, I'm still learning and growing as an analyst and would love to get some feedback from veterans. Thanks again for reading, and best of luck with your charting and trading!
