Why it is impossible to find the "Holy Grail", the 100% success strategy.
There are several "schools" of trading, basing their entries and exits on sometimes completely contradictory signals/indicators/numbers/planets and whatnot.
'Mostly' being self-fulfilling in nature (if enough 'see' the same thing, trade the same thing, their own actions -anticipating it, actually make it happen!).
Because different people trade different theories, none can work 100% of the time, the more different theories point in the same direction, the more likely the outcome will become (confluence).
Anyone claiming they can SELL you their success story is a fraud, if they were successful, they would NOT need YOUR money!
My mantra always has been: The only way is: learn it yourself.
You gain deeper understanding from it, will be more successful because of it and it will be more rewarding (mentally and/or financially) in the end.
One sees the 'Head and Shoulders' and takes a Short, another sees low/oversold RSI and/or MACD crossing and goes Long, a third draws fibonacci retracements (on whatever high or low they deem right) and sets orders for .618 retrace, another for 1.236 extension.
Trader " ..." only focuses on one theory/strategy and knows next to nothing about others (let alone the technology behind exchanges), market does something that was not anticipated by them so they blame whales for "hunting stops" (as if 'whales' (or bears and bulls, or any other animals) have nothing better to do than lose money purposely by trying to screw over some insignificant Retailers; instead of realizing that huge wick was just someone filling a market-order with stop-sells, certain bots or the order-book doing it's 'thang').
They stay out of the market at given moment because of 'reasons' then they blame "THEM" again, "THEY make it move sideways", not realizing that most stay out of the market at the moment by herd-mentality, thus no movement.
Self-fulfilling prophecies.
Every trader is in it for the money (even, or especially, the ones claiming they are only in it "for the tech" 🤦).
Markets essentially only go up because of this greed, driving prices up; even if they 'seem' to fall a little (or a little more) once in a while. Even Black-swan events will eventually regain prices above their initial "ATH".
The only exception being, particulars being superseded, obsolete and/or dying (company bankruptcy, technology outdated) and markets being saturated (which companies try to avoid by planned obsolescence and other neat planet-raping 'improvements').
Theoretically one could just buy and hold (is your % gain keeping up with inflation?) but that can be a dangerous game to play, therefor one needs to take countermeasures by Letting go of losers for example.
Wanting more money .. and as fast as possible .. is contradicting itself.
- You either want the most money you can get (take as much upside as possible with the least amount of downside)
or
- You want money, as fast as possible (A straight line might be the shortest route but not necessarily the most profitable)
Markets (besides their upward tilted 'median') are usually in equilibrium, the scale gets tipped by infinitesimally small amounts every microsecond, like a seesaw, the order-books being volume-weighted and filled one order after the other (sorted depending on importance; limit, market, oco, hidden, etc etc). Only when the sentiment as a whole tips over to one direction or the other with enough momentum, will we observe decent 'volatility' (the very thing we want).
This brings us back to the start. The different approaches.
They all have one simple common thought at their base.
Trying to "predict" this volatility, predict the moment of change in trend-direction .. by the seemingly paradoxical way of creating the self-fulfilling volatility at the bottom or top of these trends, in idle hope of getting in and out just before the "herd".
There is only "Trend"
Uptrend and Downtrend (even that could be debated as "gaining or losing against inflation", an uptrend could still leave you with less buying power in the end and vice versa)
Both can be the slow (median-rise and agonizing grinding down) or fast (the greedy parabolic shoot-ups (what goes up must come down..usually ..eventually) and the panic sell-off (even a dead cat bounces of the ground if thrown from a great height))
There is no such thing as "going sideways" or "ranging markets" (they are still just smaller up- and downtrends confined within tighter top and bottom boundaries) - if it were truly sideways the price would have to be totally flat, which nobody would and could trade .. which in turn would make people start to sell (why hold an unprofitable asset), re-introducing volatility or even killing off the asset.
Making it full-circle: nobody wants to buy or even hold -> surplus of asset -> people cutting losses, getting nervous or even afraid, creating more downwards momentum -> other people start to see opportunities, good prices, discount, and start buying -> other see people buy and want in too, creating upwards momentum -> price is high, nobody wants to buy anymore ... -> ...
Just like Ahab's obsession with revenge eventually begets his downfall, many traders fall victim to their own demise, trying to blame things they don't understand on (blatant irrelevant) external factors, creating their own Moby Dicks.
“The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.” - Charles Bukowski
“Your overconfidence is your weakness” - Luke Skywalker
“Compare Yourself To Who You Were Yesterday, Not To Who Someone Else Is Today.” - Jordan Peterson
There are several "schools" of trading, basing their entries and exits on sometimes completely contradictory signals/indicators/numbers/planets and whatnot.
'Mostly' being self-fulfilling in nature (if enough 'see' the same thing, trade the same thing, their own actions -anticipating it, actually make it happen!).
Because different people trade different theories, none can work 100% of the time, the more different theories point in the same direction, the more likely the outcome will become (confluence).
Anyone claiming they can SELL you their success story is a fraud, if they were successful, they would NOT need YOUR money!
My mantra always has been: The only way is: learn it yourself.
You gain deeper understanding from it, will be more successful because of it and it will be more rewarding (mentally and/or financially) in the end.
One sees the 'Head and Shoulders' and takes a Short, another sees low/oversold RSI and/or MACD crossing and goes Long, a third draws fibonacci retracements (on whatever high or low they deem right) and sets orders for .618 retrace, another for 1.236 extension.
Trader " ..." only focuses on one theory/strategy and knows next to nothing about others (let alone the technology behind exchanges), market does something that was not anticipated by them so they blame whales for "hunting stops" (as if 'whales' (or bears and bulls, or any other animals) have nothing better to do than lose money purposely by trying to screw over some insignificant Retailers; instead of realizing that huge wick was just someone filling a market-order with stop-sells, certain bots or the order-book doing it's 'thang').
They stay out of the market at given moment because of 'reasons' then they blame "THEM" again, "THEY make it move sideways", not realizing that most stay out of the market at the moment by herd-mentality, thus no movement.
Self-fulfilling prophecies.
Every trader is in it for the money (even, or especially, the ones claiming they are only in it "for the tech" 🤦).
Markets essentially only go up because of this greed, driving prices up; even if they 'seem' to fall a little (or a little more) once in a while. Even Black-swan events will eventually regain prices above their initial "ATH".
The only exception being, particulars being superseded, obsolete and/or dying (company bankruptcy, technology outdated) and markets being saturated (which companies try to avoid by planned obsolescence and other neat planet-raping 'improvements').
Theoretically one could just buy and hold (is your % gain keeping up with inflation?) but that can be a dangerous game to play, therefor one needs to take countermeasures by Letting go of losers for example.
Wanting more money .. and as fast as possible .. is contradicting itself.
- You either want the most money you can get (take as much upside as possible with the least amount of downside)
or
- You want money, as fast as possible (A straight line might be the shortest route but not necessarily the most profitable)
Markets (besides their upward tilted 'median') are usually in equilibrium, the scale gets tipped by infinitesimally small amounts every microsecond, like a seesaw, the order-books being volume-weighted and filled one order after the other (sorted depending on importance; limit, market, oco, hidden, etc etc). Only when the sentiment as a whole tips over to one direction or the other with enough momentum, will we observe decent 'volatility' (the very thing we want).
This brings us back to the start. The different approaches.
They all have one simple common thought at their base.
Trying to "predict" this volatility, predict the moment of change in trend-direction .. by the seemingly paradoxical way of creating the self-fulfilling volatility at the bottom or top of these trends, in idle hope of getting in and out just before the "herd".
There is only "Trend"
Uptrend and Downtrend (even that could be debated as "gaining or losing against inflation", an uptrend could still leave you with less buying power in the end and vice versa)
Both can be the slow (median-rise and agonizing grinding down) or fast (the greedy parabolic shoot-ups (what goes up must come down..usually ..eventually) and the panic sell-off (even a dead cat bounces of the ground if thrown from a great height))
There is no such thing as "going sideways" or "ranging markets" (they are still just smaller up- and downtrends confined within tighter top and bottom boundaries) - if it were truly sideways the price would have to be totally flat, which nobody would and could trade .. which in turn would make people start to sell (why hold an unprofitable asset), re-introducing volatility or even killing off the asset.
Making it full-circle: nobody wants to buy or even hold -> surplus of asset -> people cutting losses, getting nervous or even afraid, creating more downwards momentum -> other people start to see opportunities, good prices, discount, and start buying -> other see people buy and want in too, creating upwards momentum -> price is high, nobody wants to buy anymore ... -> ...
Just like Ahab's obsession with revenge eventually begets his downfall, many traders fall victim to their own demise, trying to blame things they don't understand on (blatant irrelevant) external factors, creating their own Moby Dicks.
“The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.” - Charles Bukowski
“Your overconfidence is your weakness” - Luke Skywalker
“Compare Yourself To Who You Were Yesterday, Not To Who Someone Else Is Today.” - Jordan Peterson
