Bitcoin has had a relatively large uptrend in the last 32 weeks, just as it did in late 2017. However, the momentum seems to be slowing now, and the MACD and RSI are showing bearish divergence on the 1 week and 1 day log chart. Here I use a log chart to predict the price of Bitcoin turning down in the coming weeks based on these bearish indicators.
Bearish Divergence on 1 week MACD,
Bearish Divergence on 1 week RSI
Max hype, max media attention seen in years.
March is historically the worse performing month for Bitcoin, followed by September.
The overall trend is still extremely bullish in the long term!
But I expect a retracement to the middle of the log growth channel.
Perhaps a bounce off of the 38.20% Fibonacci level near $36,000 as support in September 2021, then resume bullish trend until around $160,000 in February 2022.
As new corporations adopt bitcoin as a store of value such as Square, Microstrategy, and Tesla, the price will most likely push higher. However, most companies probably also see that the price is at a relative high, and will most likely wait for a better price to buy. In order for bitcoin to continue it's latest trend upward, it would have to double in the next month or two. I just do not see where an additional $ trillion is coming from in such a short time.
That being said, I also agree with PlanB's stock to flow model. The prediction in this chart is still in line with PlanB's model. Bitcoin will no doubt be near $100k-160k by late 2021/early 2022. But as we all know, Bitcoin is a very volatile asset, and drawing a straight line to those prices from this point doesn't make sense. Bitcoin is in a parabolic growth phase currently, and momentum is slowing. It wouldn't fit to draw the left half of the Eiffel tower without then drawing the right half.
Bearish Divergence on 1 week MACD,
Bearish Divergence on 1 week RSI
Max hype, max media attention seen in years.
March is historically the worse performing month for Bitcoin, followed by September.
The overall trend is still extremely bullish in the long term!
But I expect a retracement to the middle of the log growth channel.
Perhaps a bounce off of the 38.20% Fibonacci level near $36,000 as support in September 2021, then resume bullish trend until around $160,000 in February 2022.
As new corporations adopt bitcoin as a store of value such as Square, Microstrategy, and Tesla, the price will most likely push higher. However, most companies probably also see that the price is at a relative high, and will most likely wait for a better price to buy. In order for bitcoin to continue it's latest trend upward, it would have to double in the next month or two. I just do not see where an additional $ trillion is coming from in such a short time.
That being said, I also agree with PlanB's stock to flow model. The prediction in this chart is still in line with PlanB's model. Bitcoin will no doubt be near $100k-160k by late 2021/early 2022. But as we all know, Bitcoin is a very volatile asset, and drawing a straight line to those prices from this point doesn't make sense. Bitcoin is in a parabolic growth phase currently, and momentum is slowing. It wouldn't fit to draw the left half of the Eiffel tower without then drawing the right half.
Kommentera:
Short now until $36k. Stop Loss at $60k. If bitcoin breaks above $60k again, it could resume parabolic trend.
