Bitcoin/USD rate (January 19th 2021 through July 2021)
Low: $27,850
High: $85,174
My 25/50/100 4h moving averages are mostly converging near $36k to $36.3k. I would like to see price hit about $38.5k and retrace to those MAs near $36-36.4k and hopefully it breaks out if the current suspected pattern is in a true triangle. Then 2 important price levels I would watch are $57k and $68k for retraces. In the future I still believe in $85-$86k being possible so long as the retraces near $68k levels don't go too low and break down.
I was originally looking for a more bearish setup since we started falling again on January 14th, but we did not reach a lower trend line in time and it looks like a head and shoulders on the right side of the $42k peak was finished and is forming something new.
Its crazy, this whole time I didn't want to believe bitcoin would reach these levels in this run, but the more I think about how I was looking for different fibonacci ratios and could not find anything that correlated correctly, the more it seems like these upper fibonacci levels could make sense. I do still believe after $86k ($100-200k max if we end up needing to recalculate yet again) we could see a massive crash and a return to true baseline before we start building more stable levels again. It may be half a year before such an event happens. Looks like bulls win for now.
Here are some related ideas that have led up to this thought process attached below:
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
Low: $27,850
High: $85,174
My 25/50/100 4h moving averages are mostly converging near $36k to $36.3k. I would like to see price hit about $38.5k and retrace to those MAs near $36-36.4k and hopefully it breaks out if the current suspected pattern is in a true triangle. Then 2 important price levels I would watch are $57k and $68k for retraces. In the future I still believe in $85-$86k being possible so long as the retraces near $68k levels don't go too low and break down.
I was originally looking for a more bearish setup since we started falling again on January 14th, but we did not reach a lower trend line in time and it looks like a head and shoulders on the right side of the $42k peak was finished and is forming something new.
Its crazy, this whole time I didn't want to believe bitcoin would reach these levels in this run, but the more I think about how I was looking for different fibonacci ratios and could not find anything that correlated correctly, the more it seems like these upper fibonacci levels could make sense. I do still believe after $86k ($100-200k max if we end up needing to recalculate yet again) we could see a massive crash and a return to true baseline before we start building more stable levels again. It may be half a year before such an event happens. Looks like bulls win for now.
Here are some related ideas that have led up to this thought process attached below:
![Humor Me [Bullish LT Perspective] (Jan 4th through Apr 2021)](https://s3.tradingview.com/5/5LqhrpUT_big.png)
Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
