King Dollar -- Point of no return ??? SHORT or LONG the Dollar

The King Dollar has been ruling the market subjects for the last 2 years . Are we now at the critical pain threshold such that its starting to hurt the US businesses. The Dollar is now overvalued by about 10% against the EURO and many other currencies since 2017.

We did blast through 99.02 level and then retreated a little but the EURUSD collapsed like a stone.

We are at a very critical point approaching 99.20 Level , if we crack that then we are heading to 100.3 .

NOTE: we hit 99.00 Level on 2019.08.01 and then fell back to Daily SMA-100 line (97.21) then we bounced to 98.45 then dropped again , back to SMA-100 (97.45) and then bounce back to take out 98.45 and further touch 99.02 ( which is at the top of Ascending triangle). It looks like SMA100 is our Major support

If we fail to break 99.20 ( Breakout to 100.3) expect a drop to test the SMA100 ( will be around 97.60 area ) to relieve the USD overbought pressure before we resume the upward trend if USD continues to be well supported .

NOTE: if we are Short DXY ==> we are Long EURUSD and GBPUSD mostly. we are in wait and see mode for the next 2 to 3 days due to a lot of factors including trade wars . we want a better clarity with the dollar

Kommentera:

Dollar has maintained a bid tone for the past few weeks due to trade war issues and Brexit plus other myriad of issues. Every time DXY has crossed the above ascending trend line + 0.50 Max , it starts to drop for a couple of days to release the overbought pressure before it continues uptrend since Nov 2017.

Will that theory hold or be thrown in the garbage ?