10/13 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Looking Ahead
Recap
Yesterday was a volatile trading day, with the CPI data release causing some significant market movements. The initial move down to 4393 was a trap for shorts, followed by a squeeze to ~4418, which trapped longs, and then a significant move lower. This pattern of trapping is common on data days, making them challenging to trade. The past week has been incredibly bullish, with four consecutive green days and a rally spanning 187 points from last Friday's low to yesterday's high. The trigger for this rally was ES reclaiming its 11-month bull market trendline last Friday at ~4315.
A key development was the rising wedge pattern that formed and broke down on the 4-hour chart. This bearish pattern indicates increasing momentum to the upside within a narrowing range and decreasing volume, signaling a reversal when the uptrend line is broken. The breakdown from this wedge contributed to yesterday's selloff.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up
Major Global Catalysts
Key Structures
Several key structures were notable in yesterday's trading. At 4438, we see a backtest to the wedge structure on the daily chart that we broke down on September 26th. The 4416-18 level backtests the horizontal line connecting the June 26th low with the August 25th low, a key breakdown area. The 4377-66 zone represents the downsloping orange channel connecting the June 26th and August 18th lows, a key support level.
Support Levels
4377, 4367 (major), 4360, 4352 (major), 4345, 4336 (major), 4318-22 (major), 4302 (major), 4296, 4278-80 (major), 4268, 4255 (major), 4237, 4226 (major), 4214, 4200-05 (major), 4190, 4179 (major), 4160-62 (major), 4153.
Resistance Levels
4387-90 (major) 4399 (major), 4408, 4416-18 (major), 4425, 4436-39 (major), 4449, 4453, 4462 (major), 4468, 4473-76 (major), 4488, 4496 (major), 4507, 4515, 4523-25 (major), 4532, 4537, 4542 (major).
Trading Plan
For bulls, the plan is to see the late day attempted failed breakdown continue to hold. As long as the 4377, 4366 support zone continues to hold, a path higher could develop. For bears, the case begins on the failure of 4366. The goal is to get in as close as possible to either a recent high/low, or near a recent base.
Wrap Up
Yesterday was a volatile session, with bulls putting in a failed breakdown setup late in the day. This could lead to a tradeable bounce today, with a potential path higher if the 4377, 4366 support zone continues to hold. If 4366 fails, we may see a further retracement.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
Yesterday was a volatile trading day, with the CPI data release causing some significant market movements. The initial move down to 4393 was a trap for shorts, followed by a squeeze to ~4418, which trapped longs, and then a significant move lower. This pattern of trapping is common on data days, making them challenging to trade. The past week has been incredibly bullish, with four consecutive green days and a rally spanning 187 points from last Friday's low to yesterday's high. The trigger for this rally was ES reclaiming its 11-month bull market trendline last Friday at ~4315.
A key development was the rising wedge pattern that formed and broke down on the 4-hour chart. This bearish pattern indicates increasing momentum to the upside within a narrowing range and decreasing volume, signaling a reversal when the uptrend line is broken. The breakdown from this wedge contributed to yesterday's selloff.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up
Major Global Catalysts
- Inflation fears are still in sight, as Thursday’s data showed an uptick
- Israel calls for evacuation of Gaza within 24 hours
- Banks kicked off earnings this morning, with JPMorgan and Wells Fargo topping expectations.
Key Structures
Several key structures were notable in yesterday's trading. At 4438, we see a backtest to the wedge structure on the daily chart that we broke down on September 26th. The 4416-18 level backtests the horizontal line connecting the June 26th low with the August 25th low, a key breakdown area. The 4377-66 zone represents the downsloping orange channel connecting the June 26th and August 18th lows, a key support level.
Support Levels
4377, 4367 (major), 4360, 4352 (major), 4345, 4336 (major), 4318-22 (major), 4302 (major), 4296, 4278-80 (major), 4268, 4255 (major), 4237, 4226 (major), 4214, 4200-05 (major), 4190, 4179 (major), 4160-62 (major), 4153.
Resistance Levels
4387-90 (major) 4399 (major), 4408, 4416-18 (major), 4425, 4436-39 (major), 4449, 4453, 4462 (major), 4468, 4473-76 (major), 4488, 4496 (major), 4507, 4515, 4523-25 (major), 4532, 4537, 4542 (major).
Trading Plan
For bulls, the plan is to see the late day attempted failed breakdown continue to hold. As long as the 4377, 4366 support zone continues to hold, a path higher could develop. For bears, the case begins on the failure of 4366. The goal is to get in as close as possible to either a recent high/low, or near a recent base.
Wrap Up
Yesterday was a volatile session, with bulls putting in a failed breakdown setup late in the day. This could lead to a tradeable bounce today, with a potential path higher if the 4377, 4366 support zone continues to hold. If 4366 fails, we may see a further retracement.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
