10/19 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day Ahead
Recap
Yesterday marked the fifth consecutive day of intensive rangebound trading, making it one of the choppiest days in recent months. It ended with a late-day downward trend, following a 187-point rally from the October 6th low. The market spent nearly a week in consolidation mode, oscillating between 4366 and 4418. This range eventually tightened and peaked yesterday before finally breaking. The 4375-67 zone was a key battleground, with the market bouncing there twice before finally breaking down mid-day.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down a lot
🌍 Europe: Down a bit
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Up a bit
🔮 Crypto: Mixed
Major Global Catalysts
Yields and mortgage rates approaching two-decade highs.
Key Structures
The key structures to note include 4477-82, 4418, 4374-67, 4336, 4330, 4302, and 4268. Each of these represents important pivot points or trendlines that have influenced the market's movements.
Support Levels
4343, 4335, 4329, 4322, 4314, 4302, 4292, 4286, 4279, 4266-68, 4258, 4251, 4233, 4227, 4224, 4213, and 4205.
Resistance Levels
4356, 4367, 4373-75, 4385, 4394, 4404, 4412, 4416-18, 4432, 4338, 4449, 4458-60, 4473, 4480-85, 4494, 4505-07, 4515, 4525, 4532-35, 4542, and 4549.
Trading Plan
For bulls, the 4330-36 zone must hold, and 4373-75 must be reclaimed to set a "bottom". For bears, a fail of 4335 could initiate a bearish move. In both cases, avoid chasing and aim for entries close to recent highs/lows or near a recent base.
Wrap Up
The market is still in a corrective phase following last week's rally. The core bull market trendline from October 2022 at 4330-36 was backtested late yesterday and will be key today. If 4330-36 holds, we could backtest 4373-75 once more. If it fails, we could start a leg lower to 4302. The RSI is now extremely oversold, indicating a potential for a reversal.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Yesterday marked the fifth consecutive day of intensive rangebound trading, making it one of the choppiest days in recent months. It ended with a late-day downward trend, following a 187-point rally from the October 6th low. The market spent nearly a week in consolidation mode, oscillating between 4366 and 4418. This range eventually tightened and peaked yesterday before finally breaking. The 4375-67 zone was a key battleground, with the market bouncing there twice before finally breaking down mid-day.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down a lot
🌍 Europe: Down a bit
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Up a bit
🔮 Crypto: Mixed
Major Global Catalysts
Yields and mortgage rates approaching two-decade highs.
Key Structures
The key structures to note include 4477-82, 4418, 4374-67, 4336, 4330, 4302, and 4268. Each of these represents important pivot points or trendlines that have influenced the market's movements.
Support Levels
4343, 4335, 4329, 4322, 4314, 4302, 4292, 4286, 4279, 4266-68, 4258, 4251, 4233, 4227, 4224, 4213, and 4205.
Resistance Levels
4356, 4367, 4373-75, 4385, 4394, 4404, 4412, 4416-18, 4432, 4338, 4449, 4458-60, 4473, 4480-85, 4494, 4505-07, 4515, 4525, 4532-35, 4542, and 4549.
Trading Plan
For bulls, the 4330-36 zone must hold, and 4373-75 must be reclaimed to set a "bottom". For bears, a fail of 4335 could initiate a bearish move. In both cases, avoid chasing and aim for entries close to recent highs/lows or near a recent base.
Wrap Up
The market is still in a corrective phase following last week's rally. The core bull market trendline from October 2022 at 4330-36 was backtested late yesterday and will be key today. If 4330-36 holds, we could backtest 4373-75 once more. If it fails, we could start a leg lower to 4302. The RSI is now extremely oversold, indicating a potential for a reversal.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
