6/23: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
The market continued to follow the pattern of Mon-Wed weakness, Wednesday tight chop, and Thursday/Friday strength. This week, ES had a 30 point rally off the lows of the day, continuing the trend. However, there is still reason for caution as ES had a rare 3 red days in a row. In this newsletter, we will discuss the setup that produced yesterday's rally off 4393 support and provide the actionable trade plan for Friday.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down a lot
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Down a lot
🔮 Crypto: Up
World Headline
Recession fears to the forefront as global PMI data released overnight and this morning shows sharp economic contraction in the EU, Japan and Australia.
Key Structures
Some of the core big picture structures and levels being watched include the 4375ish level, the main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd, and the large rising uptrend channel in white. The uptrend from March is in play as long as we are above this channel.
Support Levels
4413(major), 4404 (major), 4380-82, 4374 (major), 4363, 4350, 4335-40 (major), 4325, 4317 (major), 4300-05 (major), 4280-85 (major), 4270 (major)
Resistance Levels
4421 (major), 4432, 4445 (major), 4454, 4467 (major), 4481-85 (major), 4492, 4508, 4518-20 (major), 4542 (major), 4550, 4565 (major), 4580 (major)
Trading Plan
For today, the rally continues above 4404, and we sell/short below. Longs are risky after a good rally, so picking spots carefully is essential. The most immediate supports down from here are 4413 and 4404, which is the critical "must hold" support for today. If we go into freefall, the levels marked as major are spots to try knife catches. For the bull case, as long as the 4404 blue uptrend channel holds, the bull case remains in play for Friday. For the bear case, it begins on the failure of 4404.
Wrap Up
In summary, as long as 4404 keeps holding, ES can base under 4421 then try to take a trip to 4432, then 4445. If 4404 fails, we start a sell to 4382, 4374, which is a magnet and major support/spot to try longs.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The market continued to follow the pattern of Mon-Wed weakness, Wednesday tight chop, and Thursday/Friday strength. This week, ES had a 30 point rally off the lows of the day, continuing the trend. However, there is still reason for caution as ES had a rare 3 red days in a row. In this newsletter, we will discuss the setup that produced yesterday's rally off 4393 support and provide the actionable trade plan for Friday.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down a lot
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Down a lot
🔮 Crypto: Up
World Headline
Recession fears to the forefront as global PMI data released overnight and this morning shows sharp economic contraction in the EU, Japan and Australia.
Key Structures
Some of the core big picture structures and levels being watched include the 4375ish level, the main breakout level from June 1st and 2nd, and the large rising uptrend channel in white. The uptrend from March is in play as long as we are above this channel.
Support Levels
4413(major), 4404 (major), 4380-82, 4374 (major), 4363, 4350, 4335-40 (major), 4325, 4317 (major), 4300-05 (major), 4280-85 (major), 4270 (major)
Resistance Levels
4421 (major), 4432, 4445 (major), 4454, 4467 (major), 4481-85 (major), 4492, 4508, 4518-20 (major), 4542 (major), 4550, 4565 (major), 4580 (major)
Trading Plan
For today, the rally continues above 4404, and we sell/short below. Longs are risky after a good rally, so picking spots carefully is essential. The most immediate supports down from here are 4413 and 4404, which is the critical "must hold" support for today. If we go into freefall, the levels marked as major are spots to try knife catches. For the bull case, as long as the 4404 blue uptrend channel holds, the bull case remains in play for Friday. For the bear case, it begins on the failure of 4404.
Wrap Up
In summary, as long as 4404 keeps holding, ES can base under 4421 then try to take a trip to 4432, then 4445. If 4404 fails, we start a sell to 4382, 4374, which is a magnet and major support/spot to try longs.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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