EUR/USD Retreats Towards 1.0750 Following German IFO...

EUR/USD Retreats Towards 1.0750 Following German IFO Data, All Eyes on Powell

The EUR/USD currency pair finds itself on a downward trajectory, with its value inching closer to the 1.0750 mark in the wake of a discouraging German IFO survey. The Euro's descent is further exacerbated by a Reuters report that hints at a potential pause in the European Central Bank's (ECB) actions come September. As the markets remain cautiously poised, the US Dollar continues to command attention, driven by the impending speech by FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell.

The recent downturn in EUR/USD can be attributed to the disheartening German IFO survey results. The survey, which gauges the business sentiment in Germany, has painted a somber picture, possibly indicative of the broader economic challenges facing the Eurozone. This has exerted further downward pressure on the Euro, contributing to its decline towards the 1.0750 level.

Compounding the Euro's woes, a Reuters report has surfaced, suggesting that the ECB might consider a pause in its monetary policy actions in the upcoming September period. This revelation has cast a shadow of uncertainty over the Euro's prospects, as traders grapple with the implications of potential policy changes within the Eurozone.

In contrast, the US Dollar remains in demand due to the prevailing air of caution enveloping the market, stemming from the anticipation of Jerome Powell's imminent speech. The EUR/USD pair witnessed renewed bearish pressure, culminating in a dip below 1.0800, marking its lowest point in a span of 10 weeks.

While the near-term technical analysis hints at oversold conditions, investors appear poised to prioritize the substance of Jerome Powell's comments over technical indicators. The FOMC Chairman's insights on the policy outlook are expected to resonate widely and potentially overshadow short-term technical factors.

The prevailing strength of the US Dollar has been casting its shadow over EUR/USD since Thursday. Comments from Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, shared on the fringes of the Jackson Hole Symposium, have indicated the potential for the Fed to maintain interest rates at their current levels for the remainder of the year. While they refrained from elaborating on the timing of policy reversals in the subsequent year, their stance has solidified the US Dollar's position.

The USD's ascendancy has been further fueled by a noticeable drop in the main indexes of Wall Street. This dynamic has bolstered the US Dollar's dominance against its counterparts, substantiating its role as a safe-haven asset amidst the prevalent market volatility.

As the trading day unfolds, Friday's atmosphere remains cautiously vigilant, providing a backdrop for the US Dollar to retain its strength. Depending on Powell's announcement, the USD could experience selling pressure if it is confirmed that interest rates will remain unchanged for the remainder of the year. Presently, the CME Group FedWatch Tool indicates a nearly 40% likelihood of the Fed implementing an additional 25 basis points rate hike by December.

Conversely, should Powell suggest the possibility of another rate increase, attributing it to a tight labor market and persistent core services inflation, the US Dollar's rally could gather momentum during the American trading session. In this intricate dance of economic dynamics and central bank communication, the EUR/USD pair finds itself delicately poised, awaiting the pivotal cues that will dictate its immediate trajectory.


Our preference

Short positions below 1.0820 with targets at 1.0760 & 1.0740 in extension.