When I look at the current short-term trend, it reminds me of the March to July bull run for the EURUSD. I think the outcome would be similar - we see a short-term collapse of the trend, some mania for "buying the dip", and then more sell-off.
In my opinion, the euro is 100% the most overvalued against the dollar, as I think the possibility of EBC increasing rate is 0%. The slowing economy in Europe makes it
1. Not a safe haven
2. A huge possibility of a euro sell off
No idea why people still flooding into the Euro when you have US10Y ~5%, the Euro bonds are not attractive at all. I think in half a year it will be sub-1 no matter from the trend, or the fundamental perspective. It is way too overvalued after the stock market revived.
In my opinion, the euro is 100% the most overvalued against the dollar, as I think the possibility of EBC increasing rate is 0%. The slowing economy in Europe makes it
1. Not a safe haven
2. A huge possibility of a euro sell off
No idea why people still flooding into the Euro when you have US10Y ~5%, the Euro bonds are not attractive at all. I think in half a year it will be sub-1 no matter from the trend, or the fundamental perspective. It is way too overvalued after the stock market revived.