News background and trading ideas on 21.09.2018

Thursday turned out to be a very busy day in the foreign exchange market. Our basic trading ideas worked very well. On pound it was possible to earn up to 150 points (if to follow our recommendations), and in the Canadian dollar it was possible to take about 50 points without special risk. The yen has also moved in line with our recommendations. With the Russian ruble, everything is less certain, but the higher it rises, the louder it will fall, so that its sales continue to be more than relevant.

Let's talk in more details about our basic trading ideas. Let's start with pound purchases. Yesterday's data on retail sales in the UK was better than expected and pleasantly surprised the markets. As a result, even another "deadlock" in the negotiations on Brexit could not stop the growth of the British currency. This is very symptomatic. Recall that in terms of UK statistics it’s just a long white band: GDP is higher than expected, unemployment is better than expectations, inflation is higher than analysts' estimates and now retail sales are better than forecasts. Total, we continue to recommend buying the pound. The basic idea - undervaluation of the pound because of incorrect interpretations by the markets of the likelihood of a deal between EU and UK - remains relevant. As well as potential targets, which extend up to 1.41-1.43.

And now a few words about the Russian ruble. It continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market. We have already noted in the previous review that this is the result of a bunch of positive for the ruble factors that converged at one point in time. But they are all of temporary nature. So, growth is based on unsteady ground. Yesterday’s statements by the Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Siluanov only confirm our idea. We mean his position on the return to the implementation of the budget rule in the foreseeable future.

The Canadian dollar today will be the object of attention in the foreign exchange market. The reason for this is a block of important macroeconomic statistics for Canada, ranging from inflation data, ending with the figures on retail sales. Obviously, it is the nature of the data that will determine the dynamics of the Canadian dollar today. Although we do not give up the basic recommendation to sell USDCAD pair, we advise doing this with correction for the outgoing data. Negotiations on NAFTA are still in progress (judging by the incoming information), which means that the basic basis for our idea is still in play.