BTD for 2020 pt. 2

PT 1537 in a week. Likely marks temp short term top w/ a pullback to the 1/2 to draw a small wave 4 before it proceeds higher to finish wave 3. Fundamentally GOLD is still the safer rally to chase. Fed is now actively encouraging inflation and raising targets leading to a lower dollar supporting the current rally.

I estimate the second and most violent part of the rally will start picking up steam about a month before the Fed ceases repo operations in April. If this is "not QE" then we'll eventually get a "not QT" which means there will be a flight from equities before the summer starts. This money will likely come pouring into GOLD as the inevitable global slowdown and election fears start spilling into financial media narratives.

Kommentera:

Exited all longs today on account of it touching the 1/4, almost a double top and being just way overbought on the daily. Probably a little too early, but profits are profits.

Now awaiting a pullback to either the 1/3 or 1/2 as this whole Iran thing simmers down in the next couple of weeks.

Kommentera:

Looks to be finding support along the 1/3... Ultimately expects it to use the 20 DEMA as support as it shallows out a but to form the same angle as the 1/2.

Considering selling some bullish GLD put spreads here as it consolidates in this flag.

Kommentera:

GOLD remains the one to own. This consolidation phase will either play out as a triangle (shown) or a regular ABC flat in which case we may have already started the next leg up. The latter will be confirmed by a break of 1585 resistance.

With a Fed hell bent on generating inflation and a potential black swan in the virus with overheated equities I remain firmly bullish.

Kommentera:

Looking to pick up more at the 1/3 line here... Maybe a chance to still make it down to E (where I'd buy w/ both hands) but the accumulation has been so strong in this consolidation phase that it would take something majorly bullish in equities for that to happen.