SPXUSD - 0.382 Star

On the daily chart SPXUSD has printed a small star yesterday and a bearish candle has printed so far today.

This potential reversal is at resistance but also very important (I think) is that it is at log 0.382 retracement from the top. This is the ratio of weakness and continuation. Weak bullish retracement and strong bearish momentum into the next wave down.

I will be waiting to see what happens as markets open, but if they open and continue bearish then I think it will prove to be an X connective wave top to lead into a devastating capitulation.

And so I will be watching closely as I am long SPY ROKU and PYPL currently. I may be exiting those positions and looking for good shorts again. But I'll wait to see how things develop this week.

Not advice.

Kommentera:

Opening bearish. I've closed all longs and taken last week's profit off the table.

Kommentera:

Its quite a choppy distributive top but SPX just printed a 4hr hanging man and although i have a fib up above the 0.382 that it may overshoot and hit, that for me would be a Wyckoff UT/UTAD with momentum turning to the downside. Still not 100% sure but im holding short positions now in RYN APLE and MAIN, we'll see how it goes.

Kommentera:

Worth noting that although SPXUSD has touched the 0.382, SPX has not as it happened out of hours, so I think there may be UT Upthrust to touch there before falling back. If it does and print a star that can be another good short opportunity i think.

Kommentera:

Quite a choppy passage but now SPC has tagged 0.382 as I suggested then bounced to magic number 0.75 and now looks ready to move down. Still not concluded yet but this looks to have been a nice easy fib entry.

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We'll see if 0.382 holds today. If not then it could be a UT Upthrust - probably most likely or if it challenges the SPXUSD high then I will be neutral again.

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Well strong impulse today and I'm now neutral and on the sidelines. Lets see what happens