Muskies get burnt

Expected price action:

- 253 after earnings
- bounce to make lower high around 275-285 by early August
- drop to low 200s by September

Alt path:

- spike post earnings to 299
- immediately hit from there to low 200s by Sep.

B waves are rough.

Kommentera:

On schedule for initial target of 253. When names get hit even after beating earnings its a bearish sign meaning the upmove has been exhausted. 299 was the equilibrium point that was hit today and we saw immediate selling pressure there which became materialized post market.

I think we will see downside continuation into next week to the low 250 range, then mid week (7/26) it will begin to bounce to carve out lower high before the real downside begins in late August/September.

More shorts piling in could technically squeeze out one more high, however, this would still be a bearish set up with low 200s as Target 2 and be a great opportunity to exit any remaining longs and enter bigger short.

Kommentera:

Taking some profits here, hit 254 - 1 pt away from target

Kommentera:

Will start next leg of path up to 280-290. If it fills gap to 290 and turns that will be a good short entry for 3rd leg of path down to low 200s by Sep-Oct

Kommentera:

A break below 253 will send it lower to the 210 target, in that case it won't fill the gap up yet. The lower 200 target will likely just be the first wave down of a larger C wave.

Kommentera:

If you load new bars you'll see my forecast hit exactly. I'll post an update soon (continuation down)

Kommentera:

I'll be posting a new idea soon of where this continues - still bearish just with more precise path from here