The_dumpster_diver

Volatility GOT edition- the night King cometh

CBOE:TYVIX   CBOE CBOT 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Volatility
Buckle your seatbelts we're gearing up for a realized volatility rollercoaster ride. As I've been mentioning in past posts what we need to worry about isn't equity volatility but macro driven bond volatility that can spark contagion in equities. The levers of risk on risk off can be extreme (December melt down), but here's a basic premise of how the game works. Risk on yields up and capital flows easily into equities over bonds. Yields down capital is likely to remain in cash or cash equivalents. The spread between yeilds may intensify the effect due to the tightening effect. We've already begun to see responses to the night King (libor. Global rate path, China...etc) but his secret weapon comes from interest rate differentials and overall growth uncertainty
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