MQP PRESENTS - MY AMERICAN DREAM PART 3.2 BINARIES SOLVED.

HEADER - Entry long is 12/22. Exit 12/29 or 12/30.

SUMMARY - I solved for the mini binaries. It should be expressed as a limited 2-way vol zone.

DETAILS - The labels are the standard wave periods.
1) The two ellipses are opposing vol zone.
2) If it hits the high one, it should hit the low one.
3) If doesn't hit the high one, it should not hit the low one.
4) My forecast is that price should stay inside the boxes the entire way, with exception of the two circles.
5) If that's not the case, then we should know very early BC IRL thinks bears are running out of time.
6) Odds of following bear route is decreasing significantly every 4 hours.
7) If we make it to 1st bold box following this route, it would be the best 1-way signal my methodology has.
8) In this case we should hit 1950-1970 on Thursday 12/29 and/or Friday 12/30.

NOTES -
1) The option prices I listed were way off.
2) Instead of costing $!60, it would be roughly $700.
3) Apparently, prices for the straddle have increased 300%+ in 2-3 weeks.
4) Too rich for my blood at this time.
5) If this chart doesn't hold. I don't see major value in gold vol for some time.
6) I'll comment again around 12/20.

Kommentera:

12/13 9:18 AM ET QUICK UPDATE
1) It took a very awkward route to first circle.
2) So the ceiling for first circle should be 1833-ish (as opposed to 1865, but we will see]
3) because it bent down before spiking and fundamentally,
4) because it's too close to FOMC (tomorrow).
5) No changes to boxes right now.
6) Finally, the intermediate curves from 200 to 600 are all getting in position.
7) The majors 216, 288, 360, 432, and 504 are ll turning.
8) So odds are stacking in our favor.
9) Get funds ready for 12/22.
10) We are going to nail this trade.

Kommentera:

11) ALL THE MAJORS ARE TURNING MUCH EARLIER THAN I ANTICIPATED PREVIOUSLY.
12) That is bc as of 2 weeks ago, I did not anticipate a move to 1970 to close December, bc it's VERY fast.

Kommentera:

13. I forgot to say, the circles moved forward as well, so TECHNICALLY 1865 still top for this week.
14. In that scenario all the boxes move forward a little bit.

Kommentera:

2PM ET 12.13
1. Correction, the circles did not move that much.
2. So 1833 should be this week's ceiling.

Kommentera:

7PM 12.13
1. Re-correction, the circles DID MOVE forward 3-4 days.
2. So what? That means that the spike to 1860 is still on board for this week.
3. But the checkdown would be 1790-ish, IF IT DID.

Kommentera:

12.14 10:20 AM ET PRE-FOMC UPDATE
1. The circles moved but they ARE SMALLER NOW.
2. So?
3. They are barely above and below the boxes w/in /5pts.
4. So going forward we only need the boxes.
5. Entry still same, on 12/22.
6. The high is tricky, it's 12/28 if fast and 01/04 if slow.
7. So it should be a double top.

Kommentera:

12.15 7AM ET QUICK UPDATE
1. The boxes have to hold here.
2. So 1775 needs to hold to 12.22 for this to work.
3. IF NOT??
4. Then it would develop back into bear outcome like 1G HERE:

Kommentera:

5. continuing from chart above... so whats the point of my work??
6. if it can't tell which outcome will occur??
7. over the course of the last 10 days, I have reached the limit of this methodology
8. and all the signs says this right now:
A. we have an incomplete 216 semi-perfect long in progress
B. with a floor at within 10pts of the current box's low
C. and we will move to 1970, 1950 should get hit by 12/30
9. can that change?
10. I don't have a reason why not.

Kommentera:

11. HOWEVER:
a. I broke this down for 10k 1H bars to see the transition of compression and
b. it's such a perfect setup for this outcome... I can't express how perfect it is
c. I would say 1760 is stick-save line in the sand, breaking under this would bring periods under 36 days out of position
d. so it can get lower to 1760, but needs to rebound to 1790s within 2 days to keep the set up alive

Kommentera:

END OF POST. HERE IS 3.3, PRETTY MUCH A CHEET SHEET: