BTC bounced EXACTLY where plotted, now nearing 5-wave END points

Part of my ongoing Bitcoin analysis (see links below).
Mar 24: 50.1k Retrace Target
Mar 17: 59.8k Top Warning
Mar 16: 53.3k Bounce Call
Mar 13: 61.2k Top Warning

BTC bounced exactly where expected, after a perfect ABC correction.
Now the bounce is nearing end of a 5-wave structure (Impulsive wave).
This entire structure could be a "wave 1", with wave 2 retrace to come.

59.0k is the first expected target for wave 5 of this bounce.
59.5k should be easy to hit if 59 round does not reject hard.
59.8k is about the max expected, just short of 60k resistance.

We can expect considerable profit taking as we approach 60k.
Bulls taking profit may then lead Bears to start a wave 2 down.
Of course we could blast thru 60k, still expect a dip soon after.

IF targets are hit and a pullback starts, I will evaluate for supports.

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Kommentera:

Target 1 HIT and surpassed.

That was quick, we have pierced the first target with ease

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Zoom IN (1 min) for a closer look at the last push

BTC standing on the vanquished resistance as if a trophy.
That was a furious leg from 57.8k, be careful of a Blow Off top here.
I think we go higher eventually, but a dip from around here is expectable.

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Kommentera:

Target 2 Hit EXACTLY

Looks like one last push to tap the second target zone

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Zoom IN (5 min) to see the Ping (exact ricochet)

And possible pullback starting as expected.
Need to watch closely here, pullback to accelerate rapidly.

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Kommentera:

Lazy pullback at best, so far.

Looking at the original plot and progress:

and a question of whether:
a) the original target was "supposed" to be the peak and had a little overshoot?
or b) the wave 5's (green and blue) actually stretched to target 2?

So taking a closer look:

Interestingly, the original target seems to be asserting itself as "the" one.
Still too early to draw major conclusions, but I am preparing for pullback.

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Zoom IN (1 min) and marking the Impulse from 59,114 with its Golden Fib seires

we see near perfect fib compliance.

Adding above 1min fib to our last thoughts about waves,

So it seems the Original target IS the one applying the gravity currently.
Also looks like 58,250-300 is a good first guess for initial dip.

So for now I will move the wave end points to the actual peak

and observe the action form here.

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SUMMARY:
- Looking more and more like 5 wave impulse is done or very close.
- Currently looking towards 58.3k for a possible bounce or clues.
- STILL plausible that we stab 60k to take out stops before the real pullback.

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Kommentera:

There it IS!

The Pulback

starting with a BANG.
Evaluating now.........

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Kommentera:

Another Target hit EXACTLY.

Cant get any more precise than that.

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Kommentera:

Dip and Beastly Bounce

Chart as originally posted, and progress since

Impressive bounce today along with stocks.

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Zoom way IN (1 min) for a look at the bounce

We have a clean fib structure to the bounce wave.
5.236 at 59.74xx the target for this wave.
Last bounce on 3.236 a very good sign.

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Adding the above fib to the original chart:

Currently fighting a higher tf 4.236, which are always tough.
That local 5.236 (blue) falls exactly within the 59.7k resistance zone.
So likely we test that recent top, and likely pull back a bit from there.

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We must always consider the BEAR case :

and this would be a perfect spot for a more serious pullback.
Wave B (bounce) could easily end here and bears to start wave C.
So this is a KEY landmark on the road to new ATH.

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SUMMARY:
- Strong bounce helped by risk-off sentiment today.
- Currently at a Dangerous level, possible wave C to come.
- Break of 59,792 would invalidate the abc deeper dip option.

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Kommentera:

till Sizzling against Resistance

First a shot of original chart and progress since posting

Hovering JUST BELOW key resistance.

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Zoom IN (5 min) to see what the hold up is

It is the 4.236 at 59,446.

That 4.236 was "supposed" to end the wave from 43k:

It failed the first time, but has been determined to save face ever since.
And it may well succeed yet, but the higher lows on each rejection says bulls should break it soon.

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So there was the KEY level, not just for this run, but perhaps in Bitcoin's life.
It quite plausible that we have topped, so we should be preparted for such.
BUT I think the fundamentals will push us higher, even if a deeper dip to come.

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Kommentera:

Moment of Truth

Following up to the last snap above

Bounce has gotten past the initial target for wave 4.

BUT w4 could go a little higher than plotted above, maybe like this

and still be a valid 4 (barely encroaching into w1).

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Bulls may well have averted the wave 5 with this bounce from blue 3.618

That 3.618 is a minor Node of the wave from 43k:

and as we have seen, the sister fib 4.236 has been the nemesis.

Zoom IN (5 min) for a look at that "Ping"

wow, that was a LOUD one. "Ping" as in "Give me a ping Vasily, one Ping only please".

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SUMMARY:
- Currently at a pivotal level, could go either way.

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Kommentera:

I have Published an updated Idea with targets for the pullback:

Please see that Idea as I will no longer be updating this one

Thanks for your follows and comments.

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