BTC Secondary Top as Expected, retrace coming in for a Landing?

Part of my ongoing analysis (click links below).
Mar 30: 59.5k Bounce Top
Mar 24: 50.1k Retrace Target
Mar 17: 59.8k Top Warning
Mar 16: 53.3k Bounce Call
Mar 13: 61.2k Top Warning

Per my last analysis, Bitcoin finished a 5 wave Impulse.
Now we are in the midst of the obligatory A-B-C retrace.
Structure looks like we are in wave "5 of C", the final leg.

56.1 - 56.2k "could" end wave C for sign of STRONG bull.
55.3 - 55.5k "should" end the retrace with strong support.
54.5 - 54.6k "possible" for overshoot/capitulation wick.

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Kommentera:

Well that was a Total FAIL :(

Per original posted, and progress since:

Bounced right after posting this.
I was expecting a bounce on Monday,
but after another dip which never came.

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Taking another look at the EW wave structure:

Looks like a bunch of A-B-C waves, ie: Corrective.
And no clear Impulsive waves in either direction (yet).
So expecting is more consolidation until key levels break.

And those KEY levels right now:

57,049 support, 59,446 resistance

Those two fibs are from the 43k wave:

Zoom IN further, we have a narrower range of relevance

The bounce off red 3.618 implies strong resistance by its bigger sister 2.518 above at 58,559.
So that is a possible consolidation zone within the larger range.

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SUMMARY:
- Original EW plot was almost instantly ( and embarrassingly) invalidated!
- However, we are still in consolidation which could still drop to lower lows.
- Key Levels of interest: 57k - 59.4k Major range, 57.3-58.5 Minor range within.


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Kommentera:

Wow, Target hit afterall, and EXACTLY at that.

So after a meandering bull trap, we cam back down to where we were "supposed" to:

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Zoom IN (13 min) for a closer look

near exact hit on the major fib at 55,567
Bounce NOT able to make the sister fib above at 57,049.
So the bounce was not very strong thus far, so need to watch closely here.

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SUMMARY:
- "Patience Pays" as they say, just waiting for the target was the play.
- Now to see if that was "it" or whether we go to the next target.
- Bulls can NOT celebrate yet, at least until 57k is taken and confirmed as support.

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Kommentera:

So that WAS the "Bottom"

My original EW was off, but the Fibs, Spot ON.

We bounced nicely off that first zone expected.

THEN we proceeded all the way up to the Genesis Fib at 61,236.44

Here is the GENESIS fib in full

every one of those levels have been KEY.

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Back to our current state of affairs:

Pinged the Genesis fib at 61256,
next up the local fib at 61843,
which was the previous ATH.

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So what next?

First lets measure the bounce wave:

PERFECT fib fit, and of the "Golden" (parabolic) style.
The first clue of such Parabolic fit comes with the fib AFTER the 4.236.
After 4.236, a "Linear" wave would notice 4.618,
whereas a "Parabolic" wave notices the 4.854.

Adding that fib to our original set:

Maps some initial support zones to watch if we pullback.

If we look ABOVE with new Fib:

We now have our next three targets/hurdles.

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Looking at the wave structure:

It seems quite plausible that we test previous ATH.
And also plausible that we get a "Double Top" there.
Not necessarily a bull run ending double top, but local.

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SUMMARY:
- Bull run continues after a PERFECT a-b-c correction.
- We should be able to test the previous ATH at 61.8k.
- For now, looking for a wave 4 dip, then last leg up.

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