PeterNagy

Intrinsic value calculation

Intrinsic value calculator based on Warren Buffet's and Ben Graham's work

In value investing determing the true value of a COMPANY instead of a stock price is crucial.

This little indicator shows the "Intrinsic value" of the choosen stock meaning the value of the stock in 10 years time. Calculation is based on historical book value's average annual growth rate and dividends paid.

Since this is about long therm investing, use monthly charts.

"Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life.”

– Warren Buffett

One way to calculate that is by the growth in per share book value and dividends taken in the forseeable future (10 years) than discount it with the prevailing 10 year note's rate.

In the inputs you have to set 2 variables:

1. How many years back you have the first data for book value per share available?

2. What was the per share book value that year?
(Bookvalue is ploted in olive colour and you can get the oldest one if you move your cursor over the latest data on the left)
CAUTION! You have to reenter it for every stock you analyse as this is stock-specific data!

After setting the input data, you will see the "Intrinsic Value"'s pink curve ploted over the price chart.

If the price is well below the pink line, the company is undervalued and can be a possible applicant for long therm investment.

Margin of safety: when the current price is 50% below the intrinsic value that means a 10% yearly growth potential (100% growth in 10 years) or a 100% margin of safety.


I am a beginer in Pine so please excuse my coding...
If anybody knows hot to extract historical data from 15 years ago, please share it with me, so I can automate the whole calculation without inputs necessary.
Release Notes: Some improvements:

1. I have added the "overlay" feature so the indicator loads right on your main pricechart =versus the previous version where separate indicator window started up)

2. I have entered a "fill" feature to graphicaly show the difference between the price and the intrinsic value. Shows the margin of safety with red fill.

Still working on improvements, so check back.
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