Much respect to Philip Swift the original creator of this idea and big thanks to Tradingview author Ninorigo for sharing the script which this indicator is based on.
Philip Swift has noted that:
Using the x2 multiple of the 350 day moving average along with the 111 day moving average provides an interesting market cycle indicator.
Over the past three market cycles, when the 350DMA x2 crosses below the 111DMA, Bitcoin price peaks in its market cycle, this has been accurate to within three days of Bitcoin price topping out.
Here I have modified an existing script by Tradingview author @Ninorigo which shows the moving averages and gives signals upon crossover by adding the following features:
A function which shows the price at which the 350DMA will Cross Below the 111DMA.
(This is calculated from the prior bar closing data and does not repaint)
An “anticipated cross” function which may give a 1 bar advanced warning of a cross.
(this is calculated from current bar values and may change and repaint)
The crossover levels are shown in an info label to the right of the current price.
When there is a BTC Pi Market Cycle Top anticipated cross on the next bar there will be an orange background signal.
When there is an actual BTC Pi Market Cycle Top cross there will be a red background signal
When there is an anticipated cross back there will be a blue background signal
When there is an actual cross back there will be a green background signal
This indicator will show the appropriate moving averages and crossover information from the regardless of the timeframe you are using.
This should be helpful in more accurately identifying the price level where the Pi Market Cycle moving averages will cross denoting a possible market cycle top.
It is interesting to note:
350 / 111 = 3.153
Which is the closest we can get to Pi when dividing 350 by another whole number.
This is a script to give another view and metric on an interesting experimental idea. This is not financial advice.
I have left the defaults as they were.... daily timeframe and a multiplier of 2.
While the Pi Cycle top was originally intended for use on bitcoin I have noticed that with different timeframe and/ different multiplier settings make it more broadly applicable.
These new settings allow for "fine tuning" of the indicator to other cryptos and to other asset classes.
Renamed variables, functions and descriptions for improved consistency and clarity.
In true TradingView spirit, the author of this script has published it open-source, so traders can understand and verify it. Cheers to the author! You may use it for free, but reuse of this code in a publication is governed by House Rules. You can favorite it to use it on a chart.
I dont really have any suggestions in regards to using it to predict price at the peak particularly as it is a reactive indicator.
Having said that I do keep a close eye on the cross value itself as if and when price meets that value the signal will be given therefore I am using that to gauge what would be a likely upper limit to how high price may go for this market top.
As you will notice it has been dropping steadily (some would say exponentially) as price has been moving up. that comes with the warning that the signal tends to fire during the last "parabolic blow off top" in a hugely volatile manner.
The trader I have learned most from has a saying "never try to short a parabolic blow off top because you simply cannot know where it will top out" as that last blow off is often dictated by shorts getting liquidated.