Bitcoin - The bottom is not in! 15k or 10k (careful)
- Everyone thinks that the bottom is in and we are going to a new all-time high, but in my opinion, that's definitely not true. In this analysis, I will tell you why!
- First of all, we need to take a look at the huge dump that occurred in 2021–2022 (from 69k to 15k). From the Elliott Wave perspective, it's most likely an impulse wave, not a corrective wave, because there are no overlaps between swings and the price action was extremely steep and bleedy. Also, there are no triangles in this structure whatsoever. You may say that it's not an impulse but a WXYXZ triple-three corrective pattern. It's possible, but in my opinion, these patterns tend to have more sideways price action than steep. You may also say that it's an ABC correction, but there are clearly 5 waves.
- We should be in a major corrective B wave followed by a major C wave, which should end between 15k and 10k. I am not saying we will reach 10k for sure, but we should at least take liquidity below 15.5k to complete the ABC correction. That means if you buy Bitcoin now, you will experience a big drawdown on your account.
- This analysis is not a trade setup; there is no stop-loss, entry point, profit target, expected duration of the trade, risk-to-reward ratio, or timing. I post trade setups privately.
- 10k is a strong psychological level, and there is plenty of reason to buy Bitcoin here. 0.618 LOG FIB retracement and the start of the GAP are definitely reasonable targets.
- Right now, we are clearly in an uptrend on the weekly chart, and Bitcoin could reach 30k to 40k. The invalidation point for this analysis is 45k. If we reach this level, then I am wrong and I will buy BTC and ride the bull market to 150k. Targets will be specified for sure in one of my next analyses, so make sure you follow me and my updates!
- The potential reversal point for this major corrective wave is, in my opinion, at 30k (strong horizontal support and POC) or 39k (0.618 LOG FIB). Then we should go down to 15k at least.
- Also, if we take a look at the previous price action from 2018 - 2020, we had an exponencial pump from 3k to 14k followed by an exponencial dump from 14k to 4k. But we didn't take liquidity below the 3k level. This time I expect liquidity to be taken below the 15.5k level.
- I hope this analysis is clear for you, and considering the upcoming recession and upcoming stock market crash, it's also possible to go down to 15K from a fundamental perspective.
- Thank you, and for more ideas, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
