XAU USD - long term view to the demand zones at $1300 - 1400

Monthly

• Rejection from a double top or retest of the supply has allowed the free move of Gold to establish Impulses on the downtrend.
  
• Price has created a consecutive 6 bearish candles from April 2022, which matches structure of April 2020. Now, the correlation here between SPX & XAU shows a bullish run towards the equal high for XAU in 2020, and shows the departure sell to present towards the PCP in a Drop base drop scenario at the first monthly landing zone or this will form the pivot point whereby price will use probability and confirmation rules to react off said level to create a new long structure.
  

Further Monthly

Weekly

• The OL supply has created an impulse of four consecutive weeks, pivoted back to a reversion point (aligning to the structure left with range highs at resistance levels).
  
• The curve has also indicated with the lower high formed on the weekly pointing to $1995 - subject to the curve creation here - price will look to test said curve at different positional points which forms using reversion pivots towards 50-61.8% using the Fibonacci sequence.
  

Please note the zoomed in trading range below where white boxes, represent the trading range.


Scaled in weekly

Daily
Red box represents untapped room for shorting - looking left provides the clear price drop still available for the next zone.
The daily chart as indicated a smoother curve which connects multiple lower highs where price has failed to 'tap' the curve keeping the strong.
The chart below shows the (ii) shows the resistance (PCP) daily levels which allow the strategy of a Drop Base Drop scenario to continue with the structure cycle occurring multiple times (to present) we are on cycle three. This current status of the structure shows a strong lower high formation into the Fresh supply level and a new sell off zone is ready to be anchored. Following the rules of supply and demand zones - this supply will now look to test the range low at the daily demand between $1600 - 1620.

(ii)

For those DCA-ing in long term investment vehicles. The Monthly PCP is the next best place to wait at an interval respecting


SPX & XAU CROSS

• The Monthly crossover shows both the top of SPX and XAU supply zones on the monthly - and have followed the same pathway with a strong correlation (negative). Where price has poor price action in terms of monthly consolidation - showing the trend has been extremely bullish - forming a high curve.
  
• Price has two pivot levels which allow price action to fall back to a PCP or a fresh level of demand between 3570 - 3230 zone. The price action here has provided two months of a consolidative pattern which has formed a probable level where a bullish counter trade can be taken as this is a Fresh level.
  Please note - the curve on the SPX is in a curve to the downside - and has already produced a pivot point (pointing to March and July) respectively.